Hello, friends in the crypto community! Recently, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood reiterated an inspiring viewpoint during an interview with Fox Business: the traditional four-year cycle of Bitcoin is being completely broken! She believes that the continuous entry of institutional investors is leading Bitcoin from an era dominated by retail investors and extreme volatility towards a more stable and lasting 'super cycle.'
In the past, Bitcoin's price was greatly influenced by halving events, with a cycle of bull and bear markets every four years: prices surged after halving, followed by deep corrections of 70-80% after the peak. However, Wood pointed out that this pattern is no longer applicable. Since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. in 2024, over $100 billion has flowed in, with massive trusts managed by giants like BlackRock. At the same time, more than 70 listed companies have incorporated Bitcoin into their balance sheets, with MicroStrategy holding over 660,000 BTC. This influx of institutional capital has significantly reduced volatility: the 90-day realized volatility has dropped below 40%, and the maximum correction in this cycle was only 26%, far below historical levels.
Wood emphasizes that the bottom for Bitcoin may have formed around $86,000 (briefly touched at the end of November), with the four-year cycle failing, replaced by a supercycle driven by global liquidity, regulatory environment, and adoption rates. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's latest rate cut of 25 basis points, Powell's speech signals easing, greatly boosting institutional confidence. Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative asset to 'digital gold' and a macro asset, with future pullbacks expected to be shallower and more moderate.
Although ARK Invest lowered its 2030 Bitcoin target price to $1.2 million in November (due to stablecoins diverting some payment functions, originally $1.5 million), Wood remains extremely optimistic: institutions are only 'scratching the surface.' If they allocate 6.5% of assets (global institutions manage over $200 trillion), Bitcoin's potential is enormous. This signifies a more sustained upward wave rather than a severe bear market.
The current market is rebounding, with BTC returning to around $94,000 and ETH strongly following suit, showing significant resilience under institutional leadership. Wood's perspective reinforces bullish confidence: hold patiently, and we may welcome a supercycle! Of course, macro uncertainties still exist, with Federal Reserve policy and global liquidity being key variables.
Binance Square Summary: Bitcoin is no longer a high-risk gamble but a mature asset. Retail investors, DYOR, pay attention to institutional dynamics, accumulate mainstream coins on dips, traverse the cycle, and witness a new era together!#比特币超级周期 #币安广场
