The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates, causing a direct explosion in the cryptocurrency market! The four-hour BTC chart shows alarming signals one after another: the support level of $91,000 can no longer hold, and the life-or-death line of $84,000 is also struggling to hold up! The Bank of Japan suddenly announced an interest rate hike, and global markets have become tense. BTC has taken a wild rollercoaster ride; on the four-hour candlestick chart, a death cross has appeared. The crucial support level of $91,000 has already been broken, and whether $84,000 can hold is now uncertain! Is this the prelude to a crash, or a deliberately created illusion of a downturn? We need to analyze this thoroughly, from capital movements to technical indicators, and uncover the truth!
The news is shocking: yen interest rate hike, global capital relocation.
Over 90% of economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the meeting on December 18, pushing rates directly to 0.75%. It may even rise to 1% next year! This is serious; the yen is the world's largest arbitrage currency, and a rate hike means the cost of borrowing yen to trade BTC will soar. Hot money may withdraw from high-risk assets and flow back to Japan to fill the holes. More critically, the Japanese government supports this rate hike, indicating that inflation and yen depreciation have reached their limits. The expectation of tightening global liquidity is like a domino effect, falling one after another!
Technical indicators are sounding alarms: the four-hour chart is filled with red lights.
Look at the four-hour candlestick chart; three major danger signals have lit up:
MACD death cross confirmed: the fast line has crossed below the slow line, and the momentum bar has changed from green to red, indicating that short-term bearish strength is increasing. The last time this occurred, the price retraced nearly 10%, so caution is advised this time as well.
Bollinger Bands opening downwards: the price has not only broken below the middle support line but is also running towards the lower band, showing a clearly weak overall trend.
Key support level breached: the important level of $91,000 has been broken, and we need to watch around $84,000 next. If this level can't hold either, it may trigger a new round of selling.
RSI indicator weakness: although it's approaching the oversold area, the momentum hasn't fully released, indicating that downward pressure may not have been completely alleviated.
Personal opinion: short-term risk aversion first, a sharp drop may be a good opportunity for long-term buying.
Market sentiment is quite cautious now; short-term volatility will definitely be large, but I think there are opportunities within it. Based on past experience, before the December rate hike expectation lands, Bitcoin may continue to fall, as funds have already moved to avoid risk. I predict that the downward target may be in the range of $84,000 to $85,000.
Key to watch is the trading volume: if it breaks below $84,000 on high volume, it indicates significant selling pressure; run quickly. If it stops falling on low volume, then you can consider slowly buying back. It's like going to war; wait for clear signals before taking action.
Radical traders, if the rebound can't break the resistance level of $91,000, you can try shorting with a small position, but be sure to set a stop-loss to control risk.
For long-term investors, I recommend buying in batches in the range of $84,000 to $86,000, setting stop-losses to prevent unexpected events.
Focus on the Bank of Japan meeting on December 18: once the news lands and the bad news is fully priced in, a strong rebound is likely. The market always reacts to expectations in advance; once the news is clarified, it may welcome a turning point.
