According to reports from Bloomberg, Reuters, and the Wall Street Journal (which Musk has not denied), SpaceX plans for an IPO in June-July 2026, with a valuation of 15 trillion dollars (10.5 trillion RMB).



His goal is to raise over 25-30 billion dollars. If calculated based on selling 5% of shares, the financing scale will reach 40 billion dollars, which will directly break the record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019 (29 billion dollars), becoming the largest IPO on this planet. The kings of the crypto world are completely insignificant at this fundraising level.

For years, Musk has resisted an IPO to avoid the pressures of the public market (as Tesla experienced). However, after the Starship test explosion failure in 2025, the company accelerated its move to go public to raise substantial funds.


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Is there a bubble in this valuation?

The development progress of the Starship's lunar and Mars rockets is an important endorsement for its IPO. SpaceX is expected to generate about 15 billion USD in revenue by 2025, increasing to between 22 billion and 24 billion USD by 2026, with most of the revenue coming from the Starlink business.

If viewed solely from traditional financial metrics, a valuation of 1.5 trillion USD is absolutely 'astronomical' or even a 'bubble.'

If calculated based on the projected revenue of 15 billion USD in 2025, a valuation of 1.5 trillion corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of 100 times.



What does this mean? Let's take a look at the comparative data:

Tesla (TSLA): The current price-to-sales ratio is about 15-19 times (it never exceeded 30 times during its peak).

Rocket Lab (RKLB): As the closest peer, the current price-to-sales ratio is about 40 times (considered overvalued by the market).

Nvidia (NVDA): The king of AI shovel stocks, with a price-to-sales ratio of about 35-40 times.

Traditional military/aerospace (e.g., Boeing/Lockheed Martin): The price-to-sales ratio is only 2-4 times.

Purely looking at the numbers, SpaceX's valuation multiple is 5 times that of Tesla and 2.5 times that of Nvidia. By conventional logic, it's ridiculously overpriced.

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Why dare to shout 1.5 trillion?

Besides Musk's 'human superhero' halo, Wall Street dares to call this price because they are re-evaluating SpaceX—it is no longer seen as a 'space transportation company' but as 'the ultimate infrastructure of the AI era.'

If it only sells broadband (Starlink) and launches rockets, it can't support 1.5 trillion. The current premium mainly comes from two new stories:

Story One: Space-based Data Center

This is the latest core hype point. Institutions like Morgan Stanley believe that as the Starship's capacity takes shape, SpaceX can deploy **'orbital data centers'** in space.

Space is a vacuum environment (easier heat dissipation? Or more direct solar energy utilization? This part has technical controversy, but the capital market is buying in), and data transmission can bypass the physical cable limitations on the ground, achieving global low latency.

As long as it touches the edges of 'AI infrastructure' and 'computing power,' the valuation model shifts from 'manufacturing' to 'AI tech stocks.'

Story Two: Orbital Sovereignty and Monopoly Tax

SpaceX currently has absolute monopoly rights in low Earth orbit. It is not building roads; it is owning 'the sky.'

Any company that wants to enter space in the future (whether for communication, mining, or tourism) may have to pay 'toll fees' to SpaceX or use its standards. This 'sovereign-level' moat is not available to traditional commercial companies.

How impressive is this brainwave?

Just look at the stories made up in the crypto space; they are simply weak.

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How much have early investors made?

Why do we say @peterthiel's Founders Fund is impressive? Because they can really make money.

In 2008, SpaceX had just experienced three rocket launch failures and was on the brink of bankruptcy. Peter Thiel's Founders Fund and Valor invested at this time; this money was not just an investment but also 'life-saving money', with a valuation of 400-500 million USD, leading an investment of 20 million.

$1.5 Trillion / $437 Million ≈ 3,432 times
1.5 trillion USD / 437 million USD ≈ 3432 times

In 18 years, 20 million will become 68.6 billion USD, an absolute home run investment!

137 Ventures invested in 2012 when SpaceX's valuation was about 1.3 billion USD, yielding about 1000 times return.

Google (Alphabet) & Fidelity (Fidelity Investments) invested 1 billion USD in 2015, taking 10% of the shares; their return rate is about 150 times.

Don't be misled by the small multiple; they invested a lot, and the returns are huge. 15 billion has now turned into 150 billion, earning 135 billion USD in 11 years, it’s insane.


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Is it worth it?

1.5 trillion is priced based on the narrative of 'if SpaceX dominates the solar system'; if you believe in this future, it's not expensive; if you only look at the financial reports, it's ridiculously overpriced.

Although there is an old saying that 'the most beautiful narrative kills the most people,' this narrative is told by @elonmusk, who has realized all the boasts of 'Iron Man', the most Pure man in technology on this planet.

I personally plan to embrace a wave of bubbles; if the crypto space can rush with a valuation of tens of billions, why not dare to rush for the IPO of the essence of human civilization? As long as I can run away before the public's fever cools down.

Next, I will focus on which places allow me to trade SpaceX's equity in advance. Currently, Robinhood Crypto EU has actually launched tokenized equity trading for SpaceX, but it requires KYC in Europe.

Users are buying tokens corresponding to the equity held by a third-party custodian. This is currently the only official endorsed and explicitly targeted channel for retail investors for SpaceX tokenization, but it has very strict regional restrictions.

There are some other crypto RWA projects claiming to do this, such as @StableStock, and Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) on Kraken can also be considered a channel.

Anyway, there is still more than half a year, and I believe there will be many RWA projects targeting this IPO to stir things up.

#SpaceX #SpaceXIPO #RWAs