Is the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike wave coming? Reuters survey: "Raise by 25 basis points in December", interest rate may break 1% by September next year
While most central banks are still entangled in whether to lower interest rates, the Bank of Japan may be about to initiate a small wave of interest rate hikes.
On December 11, BlockBeats reported that in a Reuters survey conducted from December 2 to 9, economists almost unanimously bet that the Bank of Japan will raise the short-term interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75% by 25 basis points at this month's monetary policy meeting—this would be its first interest rate hike since January this year.
Why has the expectation of this interest rate hike suddenly intensified?
Behind it are the dual pressures of inflation and the yen.
Earlier, sources revealed that considering the high domestic inflation risks and the continued weakness of the yen, the government led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has tacitly approved the central bank's interest rate hike plan.
Data can better illustrate the market's unanimous expectations: among 70 surveyed economists, 63 (90%) are optimistic about a rate hike in December, nearly doubling from last month's 53%; among 54 respondents, more than two-thirds (37) believe that by the end of September 2026, Japan's short-term interest rate will reach at least 1.00%.
Gradually transitioning from the "negative interest rate era" to normalization, the Bank of Japan's shift in monetary policy may trigger a chain reaction in the flow of funds in the Asia-Pacific market and the valuation of yen assets.