As a cryptocurrency analyst who has been immersed in data and trends for years, I've been following the rumors of SpaceX's IPO these days, feeling as if I've witnessed a 'Starship' in the financial world about to ignite—either to explode spectacularly or to fly directly out of the solar system. Elon Musk has never played by the rules, but if he truly manages to go public with SpaceX at a valuation of $15 trillion, it would be something even science fiction wouldn't dare to write.
1. The 'space economics' behind the valuation
$15 trillion—what does that mean? It's roughly 1.3 times Tesla's current market value (about $1.17 trillion), crushing all listed companies except Saudi Aramco.
But why is SpaceX so 'expensive'? Simply put, the market is not buying rockets but the entry point to the entire space economy.
Starlink is the cash cow: Currently, over 80% of SpaceX's revenue comes from Starlink, with an expected revenue of $15 billion by 2025 and users exceeding 8 million.
This thing is essentially 'space infrastructure' — future network coverage in remote areas globally, real-time data transmission for autonomous vehicles, and even military communications could all be tied to Starlink.
The imagination of Starship: If reusable rocket technology matures, launch costs could be reduced to one-tenth of the current price. By then, space tourism, lunar bases, Mars colonization... these concepts that sound like a scam could instead become 'reasonable expectations.'
The dual bet of government and business: Falcon 9 launched more than 150 times last year, monopolizing the commercial launch market, but NASA contracts accounted for less than 5%.
This means that SpaceX no longer relies on 'government subsidies'; its ability to generate cash is robust.
However, is a 60x price-to-sales ratio (compared to Tesla's 10x) a bubble? I think it depends on whether Starship can be commercially viable by 2026. If it succeeds, the valuation is reasonable; if it fails, it's just a capital fireworks show.
2. Musk's wealth code: From 'richest person' to 'trillionaire.'
Musk's net worth is currently about $460.6 billion. If SpaceX goes public at $1.5 trillion, his stake in this company would soar from $136 billion to $625 billion, bringing his total wealth close to $952 billion.
What does this number mean? — Hungary, ranked 50th in global GDP, has an annual GDP of about $1 trillion.
But don't rush; this is not all:
Tesla's trillion-dollar compensation package: Last month, shareholders approved a sky-high plan requiring Musk to boost Tesla's market value to $8.5 trillion within ten years (currently about $1.5 trillion). This goal is comparable to getting an elephant to climb Everest, but if it happens, he could earn an additional $1 trillion in stock.
xAI's hidden ace: This artificial intelligence company is valued at $200 billion, and combined with the integration of social data after acquiring Twitter, it could become the next growth engine.
So Musk's wealth explosion is not a 'single breakthrough,' but a triangular resonance of Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI. It can even be said that he is teaching the traditional capital market a lesson using space and AI: future valuations will not depend on how much cash you earn, but on which dimension of resources you control.
3. Controversies and risks: When ideals collide with reality.
Of course, the market is not naive. Behind SpaceX's high valuation lies several hidden risks:
Technological realization pressure: Starship has undergone 11 test flights, but the commercial timeline keeps getting postponed. Stories about space data centers and mobile direct connection spectra all need real money invested to materialize.
The competitive landscape is changing: Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket has successfully been recovered, and Chinese and American commercial space companies are rapidly catching up. How long can SpaceX maintain its first-mover advantage?
Musk's 'scattered attention': Managing six companies at the same time, from brain-computer interfaces to social platforms, this guy's time management is comparable to a science fiction movie. If any link breaks down, the chain reaction could topple the entire empire.
4. My viewpoint: The turning point for space assetization has arrived.
As an old hand in the crypto circle, I am used to viewing issues through a 'decentralized' lens. If SpaceX's IPO is successful, its significance goes beyond making Musk rich; it will also open up a wave of securitization of 'space assets.'
Think about it: space exploration used to be a national-level task, but now private companies can raise funds, go public, and let retail investors foot the bill. This resembles the history of Bitcoin separating the currency issuance power from central banks — only this time, the casino has moved from Earth to space.
But retail investors need to be clear-headed: high valuation does not equal high certainty. SpaceX's $1.5 trillion valuation assumes that Starlink users exceed 100 million and that Starship can be reused at a low cost. If any of these assumptions are wrong, the stock price could collapse. If you're speculating based on the 'trillionaire concept,' be careful not to become collateral damage in Musk's rocket fuel.
Can Musk become a trillionaire? In the short term, it depends on SpaceX's IPO progress; in the long term, it depends on whether he can turn the hype into numbers on the financial statements. But in any case, this game of capital has redefined the boundaries of 'wealth' — when our phones can connect directly to satellites and brain-computer interfaces can trade consciousness, a trillion-dollar fortune may just be a ticket to the new world.
Follow Xiang Ge to learn more first-hand information and precise points about the crypto circle, becoming your navigator in the crypto world; learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $ETH
