Yesterday, Powell staged a dovish drama, but the market only performed a high opening and low closing—Bitcoin surged and then fell back, while Ethereum dropped from $3447. Why did the good news turn into bad news? Because the market's expectations were already fully satisfied, and the good news became a signal for harvesting.
But the show isn't over yet! Powell personally handed the script for the next scene to the data coming at 21:30 tonight: the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 7. He clearly stated that the Federal Reserve will 'eat based on the data' going forward, and tonight's number is the first edict in the era of data dependence!
1. Why can this weekly published data determine life and death tonight?
Because it directly hits the most vulnerable nerve in the current market: how big are the cracks in the job market? All of Powell's dovish statements yesterday were based on his concerns about the 'possible deterioration' of the job market.
The number of initial jobless claims is the 'real-time thermometer' to test this concern.
If the announced value < 220,000 (for example, unexpectedly drops below 200,000): then it would be equivalent to slapping Powell in the face, indicating that the job market remains strong, and the Fed may continue to hold firm without cutting rates. The result? The dollar rebounds, risk assets are hit hard, and Bitcoin may directly plunge into the $85,000 range.
If the announced value > 220,000 (especially breaking through 240,000): then it will confirm Powell's concerns, and the market will wildly bet that 'the Fed must accelerate interest rate cuts to save the economy'! The frenzy of risk assets will ignite in an instant, and Bitcoin may take the opportunity to rebound above $100,000.
2. The market has long been walking on thin ice, and the data is the last straw.
The current market is like a room full of gas; a spark could cause an explosion. Look at the recent signs:
Liquidity is loosening: Bitcoin ETF has turned from a 'money-absorbing tool' into a 'bleeding channel', with continued net outflows since September, and institutional investors are quietly withdrawing.
Leverage ratio is excessively high: just last week, a $1 billion long position exploded, and a bunch of retail investors are still stubbornly holding on at high levels; the market is so fragile that just one data point can trigger a chain of liquidations.
Macroeconomically neglected: Even safe-haven assets like gold have not withstood the decline, indicating that the market currently only recognizes cash as king, while other assets are just 'ATMs'.
So tonight's data is not only about how the job market is doing, but also whether market confidence can still hold.
3. My judgment: Regardless of whether the data is good or bad, a rebound is an opportunity to escape.
Don't be fooled by the surface excitement; the deep-rooted problems have not been resolved.
Liquidity expectations are weakening: The Fed is dovish verbally, but the reality is honest— the probability of a rate cut in December has not exceeded 50%.
It's good enough that liquidity isn't withdrawing; don't expect the floodgates to open wide.
Narrative exhaustion: The story of Bitcoin as a 'hedge against inflation' and 'digital gold' has been told for half a year, but the reality is that ETF capital inflows have stagnated, and institutional allocation momentum is insufficient.
Structural fragility: The crypto market's high leverage and emotional old habits remain unchanged; one data point can make prices go on a roller coaster; how can such a market support a prolonged bull run?
So my strategy is very straightforward:
If the data is bad (>240,000), Bitcoin will rise; don't chase! This is the last escape window for the bulls, and reducing positions at high points is the way.
If the data is good (<220,000), directly short the position, with the target first looking at $85,000.
There are no gods in the crypto world, only those who understand the signals. Tonight at 9:30, it will either be the elixir for a bull market or the opening knife for a bear market. But in any case, don't let emotions dictate the rhythm; the rebound after the data lands is a chance given by heaven to escape.
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