The positive news has run its course; the initial jobless claims at 9:30 PM tonight are the real knife of the butcher.
Fed Chairman Powell lowered interest rates as expected last night and sent strong dovish signals: acknowledging the downward risk in employment, hinting at continued easing, yet the market played out the classic 'positive news has run its course' script: $BTC surged and fell back, $ETH plummeted from a high of $3447, and risk assets collectively crashed.
Powell clearly announced a return to a 'data-dependent' mode, no longer providing explicit forward guidance, with all paths for rate cuts now determined by economic data. Tonight at 21:30, the initial jobless claims for the week ending December 7 in the U.S. (expected 220,000) will be the first battle in the 'data-dependent era,' and a crucial litmus test for the current employment cracks.
Market logic is extremely divided:
If initial claims ≤ 220,000 (especially significantly below expectations): Job resilience exceeds expectations, Powell's dovish basis is falsified, the threshold for rate cuts is raised, 'tightening trades' will restart, and risk assets will suffer more severe sell-offs;
If initial claims > 220,000 (especially significantly above expectations): Job deterioration is confirmed by the data, strengthening the case for the Fed to cut rates more quickly and deeply, risk assets may face a violent retaliatory rebound.
The author's core viewpoint: The current market has been severely overdrawn, and any rebound due to weak data is an excellent opportunity for bears to increase their positions and the last chance for bulls to escape the peak. The real slaughter between bulls and bears has just begun; tonight's initial claims data at 21:30 will set a brutal tone for the discourse and trend for at least the next month.
Powell has handed the stage to data; tonight's initial claims numbers will determine whether the 'recession trade' fully opens or the 'tightening trade' makes a comeback, with the fate of the crypto market determined in a single night.
