In the next month or two, the market will be迎来密集数据发布与政策节点, and fluctuations may increase. In mid to late December, the US will successively announce the unemployment rate, non-farm payroll, and CPI data for November, while the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision. Entering January 2026, the US December employment and inflation data, as well as the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, will follow one after another. During this period, coinciding with the Christmas and New Year holidays, market liquidity may weaken.
Current prices have fluctuated in the 8W3-9W4 range for nearly a month. Unlike the aggressive interest rate hike environment of 2022, this is not the starting point for tightening or a recessionary rate cut cycle; the market primarily lacks new catalysts. Therefore, the probability of prices falling below 8W is low, and it is more likely to continue fluctuating while waiting for a new main line. Overall, it remains in a phase of a bear market.
Powell recently stated that there will be no rate cuts in January, which is part of expectation management. We need to wait for the data releases in November and December for the policy path to become clear. In addition, Trump may announce the new Federal Reserve chair candidate around the end of the year; if the stance is dovish, it may affect market expectations.
In January, as the holidays end, data clarifies, and liquidity partially recovers, the market direction may gradually become clear. A crypto-related policy may also take effect, providing structural support.
In the short term, with the holidays overlapping and data unclear, the market may experience increased volatility. As long as it does not effectively break below the 8W-8W2 support, even a brief dip below 8 can be accepted. We need to be cautious of on-chain panic signals. If subsequent data supports rate cuts, coupled with potential dovish signals, prices may start to rebound. For upward movement, it needs to stabilize above 9W4, and breaking through 10W1 would signify a real trend reversal, marking the end of the phase of a bear market.
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