The Federal Reserve implemented three consecutive interest rate cuts in 2025 and will additionally purchase $40 billion in government bonds within the next month, signaling the onset of implicit quantitative easing. However, market reactions have shown divergence: U.S. stocks remain stable at historical highs, and gold and silver have simultaneously set new records.
Yet, the cryptocurrency market has not strengthened in sync; rather, it exhibits a trend of 'good news being fully priced in and leading to bad news.' Bitcoin has not only failed to maintain its upward momentum but has also given back all gains post-decision, with the current price still about 28% lower than previous highs. Traditional asset markets are performing strongly, while the digital currency sector has not benefited.
Can this divergence be simply attributed to 'expectations being priced in early'? More likely, it is that major funds are using macro positives to strategically clean up market leverage. When various assets rise broadly while Bitcoin declines alone, the key question is not the reason for the drop, but rather—where is the selling pressure coming from?
It is important to be cautious of abnormal declines that occur when the market is uniformly bullish, as they often indicate further downside risks. Be mindful to avoid high-position volatility risks, refrain from blindly chasing rallies, rationally control your positions, and patiently wait for the right opportunity.
