1. Breaking the Deadlock: The Misunderstood 'Trillion-Dollar Track'
After the 2024 US presidential election, the curve of the prediction market began to visibly 'rise'.
By Q3 2025, this track, once considered a 'niche toy' by many, has genuinely become a 'new asset class at the trillion-dollar level':
Weekly trading volume peaked at over 2 billion USD;
The nominal trading volume in Q3 2025 exceeds 3 billion USD in a single quarter, expanding more than 5 times year-on-year;
The popularity even surpassed the 'frenzy peak' during the 2024 election;
Traditional financial giants CME and ICE have also begun to experiment with event contracts, treating the prediction market as a new product direction.
In this round of increased volume, the leading platforms @Polymarket and @Kalshi have collectively acquired about over 90% of the market share, truly pushing prediction markets from a 'niche toy in the crypto circle' to the center of public attention.
1. It is not a casino but a 'global truth machine'
Many people's first reaction is still:
"Isn't this just on-chain gambling?"
Rather than saying prediction markets are casinos, it is better to say it is a truth engine that turns 'opinions' into tradable assets.
In traditional polls, respondents 'just say it', with no cost;
In prediction markets, participants must wager real money:
If you get it wrong, you will lose money;
Get it right to make money.
This design of Skin in the game (voting with money) automatically filters out many emotional expressions, forcing participants to be more responsible for their judgments, and naturally making 'prices' closer to real probabilities.
In recent years, multiple studies and practical cases have repeatedly verified:
In elections, macro data, central bank decisions, etc., the prices in prediction markets are often more accurate than traditional polls and expert interviews.
Typical stories:
A large player invested eight-digit dollars in the US election market, conducting polls at their own expense, researching details like 'shy voters' that traditional institutions overlook, and ultimately made tens of millions of dollars on @Polymarket. This is not 'luck for gamblers', but a research behavior driven by capital for self-calibration.
In one sentence summary:
On social media, you can freely express your emotions;
In prediction markets, all emotions ultimately need to be accounted for in PnL.
2. User profiles are undergoing structural changes
The earliest players in prediction markets were indeed crypto degens, quantitative enthusiasts, political fans, and sports fans.
But from 2024 to 2025, this user profile has undergone a significant change:
Enterprise risk control departments:
Using event contracts related to inflation, weather, and policies to hedge business risks;
Institutional investors:
View event contracts as 'civilian version futures/options' and incorporate them into portfolio management;
Media and research institutions:
Treat odds as a 'real-time snapshot of collective cognition', assisting reporting and research;
Ordinary users:
Treat prediction markets as serious life decision-making tools:
Should you change jobs in advance? When will a certain policy be implemented? What is the probability of this referendum passing?
The media's attitude is also changing:
@CNN collaborates with @Kalshi to embed prediction data in reports, allowing the audience to see 'how the market views it';
@TIME partnered with the crypto team to launch prediction-related products, further bridging the gap between 'news' and 'trading'.
Prediction markets are transitioning from 'small circle gambling' to a system increasingly used by more institutions, media, and individuals as 'infrastructure for understanding the future'.
Two, the dual hegemony: industry cornerstones occupying 90% of the market share
Looking ahead to 2025, the overall structure of prediction markets is essentially a 'dual-core structure':
Decentralized camp: @Polymarket
Compliance traditional camp: @Kalshi
One manages the emotions and expectations of the crypto world, and the other is deeply rooted in the US regulatory system, together taking about 90% of the market share.
2.1 @Polymarket: Web3 prediction market flagship
(1) Products and mechanisms
@Polymarket was established in 2020 and is regarded as the 'flagship project' of Web3 prediction markets:
Access method: non-custodial wallets;
Settlement assets: primarily using USDC;
Market scope:
Politics (elections, referendums, congressional votes);
Macroeconomics (inflation, unemployment rate, GDP, interest rates);
Technology / AI;
Sports events;
Pop culture and trending memes;
Architecture:
On-chain settlement + off-chain order book matching;
Use oracle systems like UMA for result adjudication;
Permissionless market creation, with a rich array of topics.
Simply put, it's:
The topics you can argue about on social media are likely to be bet on @Polymarket.
After the 2024 elections, the prices on @Polymarket have been referenced by various media as a key indicator of 'market expectations'. In 2025, it became the official prediction platform partner of @X (Twitter), further solidifying its position as the 'industry default benchmark'.
(2) Development Status
2024 election week: weekly trading volume exceeds 1 billion dollars;
Q3 2025: After being surpassed by @Kalshi due to the heat of sports, it regained the top trading volume;
Acquiring the exchange QCX, which holds a CFTC license, to lay the groundwork for returning to the US user market;
After multiple rounds of financing, the latest valuation has entered the range of 1.2 to 1.5 billion dollars.
Now, when mentioning the prediction market track, @Polymarket is basically considered the 'default first reference object'.
(3) Token Status
@Polymarket: Unissued platform token, confirmed to be issued, with strong airdrop expectations.
Current situation:
The platform currently has no native token;
The official has repeatedly mentioned plans to issue a platform token (commonly referred to as $POLY or similar naming);
Will conduct airdrops, mainly targeting active users;
The timing is likely tied to a key node of 'reaching out to American users again'.
Indicators that may affect airdrop weights include:
Historical transaction volume;
Trading frequency;
Market creation, LP contributions, etc.
For alpha hunters, deeply using @Polymarket before TGE is equivalent to holding a 'long-term option for future airdrops'.
2.2 @Kalshi: Compliance world's event contract exchange
(1) Products and positioning
@Kalshi was established in 2018 and is the first and currently most important CFTC-registered event contract exchange in the US.
It is a thoroughly Web2 architecture platform:
Users need to complete KYC;
Fiat deposits (USD, etc.);
Managing funds and risks through a self-built clearinghouse Kalshi Klear.
The trading targets are 'event contracts':
Each contract will expire at either $0 or $1;
You can simply understand it as:
Buying Yes = betting that this thing will happen;
Buying No = betting that this thing will not happen.
Covers a very wide range of fields, including:
Economic data such as inflation rate, unemployment rate, GDP;
Interest rate decisions, policy releases, and other macro events;
Weather, climate, extreme events;
Election and political outcomes.
From a functional perspective, what it is doing can be summarized as:
Turning 'event risk hedging', which only a few institutions on Wall Street could afford and had very high thresholds, into a 'civilian version of futures' that ordinary people can afford and understand.
(2) Growth and ecology
By engaging in long-term games with regulators, striving for the legal status of political contracts;
Transaction volume in markets like inflation, Federal Reserve rates, labor data continues to grow;
Reaching data cooperation with mainstream media like @CNN and @CNBC to display prediction odds on television and websites;
Discuss integration with brokerages and investment applications like @RobinhoodApp, turning event contracts into a new tool for users' asset allocation.
(3) Token Status
@Kalshi: Unissued tokens, with no plans for platform tokens in the short term.
Roughly three reasons:
The business model can run smoothly without tokens;
CFTC regulatory environment is very sensitive to tokens, introducing tokens will significantly increase compliance complexity;
The team's current focus is on category expansion + user growth, rather than 'issuing tokens and telling stories'.
Therefore:
@Kalshi's income is primarily from transaction fees and clearinghouse services;
No token incentives, nor 'yield farming space';
But in terms of commercial value, it has already proven: 'No tokens can also be a very profitable business.'
For crypto users with a 'token-first' mindset, @Kalshi may seem less appealing;
However, in terms of long-term stability and compliance barriers, it is a very important pivot in this track.
Three, Alpha Hunters: The rising star @opinionlabsxyz
Beyond the two giants, the new star worth marking for Alpha players in 2025 is @opinionlabsxyz (Opinion Labs).
What it is doing can be simply summarized in one sentence:
"Pack prediction markets + oracle + multi-chain assets into a comprehensive truth infrastructure."
3.1 Background: From @cz_binance's capital-backed 'truth lab'
@opinionlabsxyz was born in 2024:
The core team comes from traditional finance (including former JPMorgan executives), crypto, AI, and other backgrounds;
The seed round was led by @cz_binance related family funds / YZi Labs, with multiple institutions following suit;
CZ, while publicly emphasizing 'not an endorsement', in the crypto circle, this level of investment itself is a very strong signal.
Capital, resources, and narratives combined have allowed @opinionlabsxyz to start from a very high starting point.
3.2 Architecture: Comprehensive CLOB + AI Oracle
@opinionlabsxyz's technology and product can be understood at three levels:
(1) Multi-chain prediction exchange
The product matrix includes sub-products like O.Lab and AlphaOrBeta;
Deployed on multiple chains like Arbitrum, Mantle, opBNB;
Support for various ERC-20 assets for collateral and trading;
The goal is: regardless of which chain you have money on, you can access the prediction market with one click.
(2) Central Limit Order Book (CLOB)
Not following traditional AMM;
Using a matching structure close to centralized exchanges;
Supports limit orders, market orders, and high-frequency orders;
Very friendly to market makers, arbitrageurs, and professional traders.
(3) AI-driven oracle networks
Introduce multi-agent and Chainlink Functions and other underlying facilities;
Make oracles not just 'feed data', but capable of understanding complex semantic scenarios:
Policy texts;
News reports;
Official announcement;
Can handle adjudication of results for complex macro indicators like inflation, employment, etc.
The potential of this combination lies in:
In the future, you will be able to trade things like:
"Will the CPI of a certain country exceed X% in a certain month?";
"Will a new AI model exceed a certain threshold on a certain benchmark?";
"Will a certain chain's TVL exceed a certain number before a certain date?"
3.3 User experience and Builders ecology
In terms of experience, @opinionlabsxyz has done several things:
The interface is game-like and friendly to beginners;
The mobile experience is optimized very well;
Launching the Builders Program:
Allow other DApps to integrate prediction market functions into their products in a way similar to 'plugging in SDKs';
Equivalent to creating a layer of 'prediction market protocol layer / public opinion protocol layer'.
In terms of incentive mechanisms, it adopts a model of 'points + leaderboards':
Creating markets, being an LP, participating in trades, completing tasks, and bringing new users will all earn points;
Points will be proportionally mapped to tokens and other rewards in the future;
The officially disclosed cumulative transaction scale has reached over a billion dollars, with user numbers exceeding one million.
3.4 Token Status and Participation Value
@opinionlabsxyz: Unissued tokens, strong airdrop expectations, currently still in the 'points mining window'.
Factually:
The official has confirmed multiple times that the platform token will be issued;
Currently, all points, activity levels, and contributions are likely to participate in airdrop distribution;
The outside world generally expects the TGE to occur around 2026.
What does this mean for ordinary users?
Every 'deep participation' now is using time and cognition to exchange for potential large airdrops in the future;
Compared to old platforms that have issued tokens and have converging expectations, @opinionlabsxyz is still in a stage of 'growth + narrative + imaginative space' coexistence;
Here you can simultaneously obtain:
Product dividends from protocol growth;
Future token capital dividends;
Becoming the ecological dividends of early users of 'comprehensive truth infrastructure'.
From the perspective of an 'alpha hunter', if you could only choose one unissued token star to include in the 2025-2026 key observation list, @opinionlabsxyz is basically a must-have.
Four, a hundred flowers bloom: four names worth remembering
For these four projects, we will explain their core and token status in no more than 100 words each.
4.1 @MyriadMarkets: Prediction markets embedded in content
Co-developed by @DecryptMedia and @RugRadio team;
Directly embedding prediction markets into news and content consumption scenarios;
Users scroll through news while seeing corresponding event markets in the sidebar, achieving 'watch and bet simultaneously';
Covering areas like crypto, politics, sports, etc., the quest/task system is highly active.
Token status: not issued. Planning to launch a native token (often referred to as $MYR), platform points are expected to proportionally map to airdrops in the future.
4.2 @footballdotfun: An on-chain amusement park for sports fans
Football.Fun / SportFun makes player performance from the top five leagues/NFL tradable 'shares';
Users can assemble their card groups and trade player shares in real time on match days;
Gameplay integrates Fantasy Sports + real-time prediction markets;
Briefly burst onto the scene with tens of millions of dollars in revenue on Base chain within a short time, becoming a popular sports DApp.
Token status: not issued. The official has plans for the $FUN token, which records user contributions and will be used for airdrops and distributions in the future.
4.3 @trylimitless: High frequency, rapid, natural language market creation
A high-frequency prediction platform deployed on Base;
Focusing on short cycle events (5 minutes to 1 day), covering cryptocurrency prices, stock indices, macro events, etc.;
Using CLOB matching to provide a zero Gas order experience;
Supports natural language market creation with lower thresholds.
Token status: issued. The native token $LMTS is used for fee discounts, staking, buyback, and burn, making it one of the relatively mature functional tokens.
4.4 @intodotspace: 10x leveraged prediction market on Solana
A high-leverage prediction platform based on Solana;
The core selling point is up to 10x leverage on Yes/No prediction positions;
Combining order book + leverage engine to match the experience of professional derivatives exchanges;
There are seasonal leaderboards, winning streak rewards, invitation commissions, and other gamified systems.
Token status: soon to be issued. The native token $SPACE is planned to launch through IDO and other means, with an aggressive buyback and burn mechanism designed that is deeply linked to platform revenue.
5. Survival Manual: How can ordinary people play to 'live well and earn well'
Many people think of one sentence when they first encounter prediction markets:
"Isn't it just gambling?"
If you are just 'betting on win or lose', then it really is just gambling.
But if you view prediction markets as a tool for 'managing uncertainty and monetizing cognitive advantages', the gameplay will be entirely different.
The following three points can serve as your 'practical survival guide' for participating in the prediction market.
5.1 Treat prediction markets as 'insurance' for the real world
There are too many things you can't control:
Inflation;
Tax policies;
Industry regulation;
Extreme weather...
But you can break these uncertainties down into tradable events, using small costs to 'add a layer of insurance' to your real-life.
For example:
Worried about runaway inflation this year?
You can buy Yes contracts like 'year-end inflation rate > X%' on platforms like @Kalshi.
If inflation really exceeds expectations, some of the money you lose to rising prices in real life can be hedged back by contract profits.
Worried that a new regulation will impact the industry you are in?
You can establish positions in the corresponding policy event market;
Policies implemented → business affected, but contracts profit;
Policies not implemented → at least the real world hasn’t been affected.
This is 'using event contracts to buffer the uncertainties of the real world', a micro risk management tool for ordinary people.
5.2 Turn information asymmetry into Alpha: grasping the truth in noise
On social platforms like X, every day there are:
Various 'insider information';
Rumors;
Vague yet emotional viewpoints.
The question is: how do you judge which ones are worth trusting?
Prediction markets provide a very practical tool: converting information into prices, using odds as a truth radar.
You can use it like this:
Verify the authenticity of news with odds:
If a certain event causes a big stir, but the price in the corresponding market stays around 0.1, it indicates that the majority of participants willing to 'vote with their money' do not expect this event to happen.
Arbitrage based on information time differences:
If you see signals earlier and understand the logic better than the average person in a certain field, you can establish positions in the corresponding market and wait for the public to react later, with prices returning to real probabilities, the difference you capture is the 'cognitive gap'.
Observe the behavior of 'smart money':
If there are large, clearly directional buy orders continuously entering a certain event market, it may represent that those with deeper research are placing heavy bets. You can follow with a small position or treat it as an additional signal.
In one sentence:
Prediction markets = a 7x24 online 'information-price translator',
Real alpha belongs to those who understand both information and probabilities/pricing.
5.3 Turn interest circles into your 'cash flow circles'
Prediction markets do not only belong to political fans or macro enthusiasts; they are friendly to many circles:
Binge-watchers, variety show fans;
Sports fans, esports players;
Focusing on those interested in entertainment, awards, and pop culture;
Even researchers concerned about climate, environmental protection, and public issues.
Your understanding, gossip, connections, and intuition accumulated over a long time in a certain field can all become measurable, convertible 'cognitive assets' in prediction markets.
For example:
You are a heavy fan of American dramas/variety shows:
You can bet on plot developments and final results;
If you’re involved in sports or esports:
Has a clearer understanding of player conditions, internal conflicts, and tactical styles than an average person;
If you have long been concerned about climate, energy, and public policy:
Judgments about whether 'a certain goal can be achieved' or 'a certain proposal can pass' are more reliable than most people's.
The biggest difference from traditional casinos is:
In prediction markets, you are betting not on random numbers, but on your accumulated interests, knowledge, and perspectives over the years.
The more seriously you take it, the more likely it is to reward you.
Conclusion: The golden age of prophets has already begun
By the end of 2025, prediction markets will have quietly undergone an identity transformation:
From the derided 'on-chain casino';
Transforming into a 'future coordinate system' referenced by media, institutions, enterprises, and ordinary people.
In this era full of uncertainties, everyone actually has a question in their mind:
"What will happen next?"
Decentralized prediction markets offer you a new way:
No longer just scrolling for information and arguing views, but:
Betting real money on the future you believe in.
Here:
Placing an order is your expression of the future;
Profit is your cognition being validated;
Losses are the tuition you pay to see the world more clearly next time.
I hope this article (2025 prediction market survival manual) can serve as a guide for you to step into this 'golden age of prophets'.
May you find yourself on @Polymarket, @Kalshi, @opinionlabsxyz, and a series of new and old platforms,
Able to find good Alpha,
You can gradually calibrate your worldview and risk perspective through repeated betting and reviewing.
Prophets, welcome to the table.
The door to the future has already opened.
