On December 11, Mitsubishi UFJ disclosed that the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was the result of 9 votes in favor and 3 votes against, reducing the rate by 25 basis points. They also acknowledged that the labor market is gradually weakening, and Powell specifically mentioned the risk of a significant downturn in the labor market.

When it comes to inflation, the Federal Reserve stated that if no new tariffs are imposed, it may take until the first quarter of 2026 for commodity prices to peak. However, there is still a risk that inflation could remain high. Powell also hinted that interest rate hikes are not currently planned, but the FOMC members have not reached a consensus on whether to maintain rates or continue cutting them.

Looking at the latest dot plot, the Federal Reserve indicated that it plans to cut rates once in 2026, which is more than the previous guess of about a 55 basis point reduction, implying more than two rate cuts and leaning towards a 'hawkish' stance. Powell also mentioned that the Federal Reserve's current situation is good, allowing them to patiently observe how the U.S. economy progresses.

Looking ahead, the policy direction of the Federal Reserve in the second half of next year may become complicated due to leadership changes, increasing market uncertainty. #美联储降息