12/11 Vast Gold: Evening gold continues to retreat, crude oil remains in focus

The core drivers of the overnight market are clear: the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but signaled a 'cautious wait-and-see' approach for future monetary policy, which sharply contrasts with Trump's call for 'greater rate cuts.' This expectation game in policy has directly triggered market fluctuations—the dollar index has come under pressure and retreated, which should have continuously supported gold prices, but the intraday market accurately reflected our morning reminder of the classic trend of 'buying the expectation, selling the fact,' with bullish momentum quickly exhausting after the positive news was realized.

My core view is: in the short term, under the dual drivers of the positive policy realization and profit-taking by bulls, gold is likely to continue its adjustment trend. Key attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support at the 4200 round number—if this level is effectively broken, it indicates a temporary halt in the short-term upward trend, with further downside potential opening up, looking towards the 4180-4170 range; if the 4200 support holds, the market may enter a phase of oscillation, waiting for next week's non-farm payroll data, a key macroeconomic indicator, to provide clear directional guidance. After all, the non-farm data will directly reflect the state of the U.S. labor market, which will, in turn, influence the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy path, potentially triggering a new round of trending market activity.

Regarding crude oil, the previously established short position above 59 has successfully achieved the first target, it is recommended to reduce positions at this point while adjusting the stop-loss to 'break-even' (i.e., near the cost price), with the remaining position continuing to target below 57, exiting entirely upon reaching that level. This operational approach locks in some profits while avoiding the risks of market reversals through break-even, aligning with the characteristics of the current crude oil market where the struggle between bulls and bears is intense and the trend is highly uncertain.

Gold pullback near 4206 to buy, with a stop at 4198 and a target around 4220/30

Crude oil holding short position above 59 has now achieved target, reduce position to break-even and look to exit entirely below 57. #美联储降息 $BTC