Bitcoin's price has extended its correction following the interest rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee. The currency has dropped by about 13% over the past thirty days and around 4% over the last week. This transition is still part of a slow and exhausting corrective phase since the peak in October.
But two shifts on the chain are now showing something that has not appeared at any point earlier during this decline. These signals suggest that the correction may be close to turning — if Bitcoin provides the push it needs.
Now there are two metrics indicating a potential shift.
Short-term capitulation is clearly visible now. Data from CryptoQuant shows that short-term Bitcoin holders are still suffering deep losses. This usually happens near the end of a correction, not in the middle, as panic selling at a loss often represents an exhaustion in the late stage.
This aligns with what is shown in HODL Waves.
HODL Waves measure how much Bitcoin each 'age group' holds — from very new coins to very old coins. It shows which groups are accumulating or selling. The batch held today to the week was 6.2% of the supply at the end of November. By December 10, they only held 2%.
This is a massive drop of 68% and indicates significant short-term selling, the type that often completes a correction rather than starting a new one. Additionally, this disposal of the batch pushes speculative funds out of the asset.
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The next signal comes from the change in network exchange positions, which tracks the number of coins entering or leaving exchanges daily.
On November 27, net flows reached +5,103 BTC (internal coins).
By December 10, flows flipped to -43,292 BTC, a shift of over 8.4 times from inflows to outflows.
A similar shift occurred between September 17 and 25. After this shift, Bitcoin rose toward its all-time high above $126,000, according to CoinGecko.
Now the same mix is forming again — short-term capitulation plus strong outflows from the wrestlers. Together, they create the cleanest trend shift system in this entire correction.
Does Bitcoin need a 4% push to break out?
If these signals indicate a shift, Bitcoin's price chart must confirm it. The price of Bitcoin is moving within a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. A symmetrical triangle forms when buyers and sellers slow down at the same pace. Each side has only two contact points, making both trend lines weak. A small push can break the setup entirely from both sides.
This push is clear: Bitcoin needs to close daily above $94,140, which is just a move of about 4% from current levels. This level overlaps with both horizontal resistance and the upper edge of the triangle. A clean breakout opens the way toward $97,320 and then $101,850.
On the bearish side, the nearest risk level is $90,180. A daily close below that weakens the bullish position. If that breaks, $87,010 is the next major support. Losing this number reveals $80,640, where the broader bullish idea collapses.
Currently, the setup is neutral but improving. Short-term capitulation and large outflows give Bitcoin price a chance to finish its correction — but only if it achieves a 4% breakout.
