Tarrifs gave excuse to attribute inflation to tarrifs. AI gave an excuse to attribute unemployment to AI. But in fact both inflation and unemployment would be unfavorable even without these factors. There is nothing FED can fix in this situation, that is why we see market reacts neutral-to-negative to seemingly positive news from FED for the last 6 months. Economy is in at best uncertain and at worst in bad shape, and it is time for Admin to fix, but they seem to not have any idea how to do that.
Their best bet for now is to unleash monetary policy after May and risk hyper-inflation. Of course market will explode, but we won’t be happy net total about that.
Unless “white swan” happens, which is not improbable.
