BTC Market Analysis — Post-FOMC (Next 24h Outlook)

BTC is trading around $89.8k, holding below all short-term EMAs on the 1H/4H/D1 — confirming a short-term bearish structure despite macro Fed cuts. The move shows that liquidity conditions matter more than the cut itself, and current flows remain risk-off.

Orderflow:

Spot CVD deeply negative → consistent selling pressure.

Whales & Smart Traders: Majority of longs remain underwater (92–95k) → market is incentivized to hunt long liquidity lower.

OI stable to slightly rising on red candles → fresh short interest entering, confirming trend continuation rather than capitulation.

Funding mildly positive → long crowd paying, adding downside pressure.

Key Levels:

Resistance: 90.6k → 91.4k (EMA cluster).

Support: 89.2k, then 87.6k (high-probability liquidity zone).

Bull reversal trigger: Only above 92.4k with strong CVD flip.

24-Hour Forecast

Base case (≈60% probability): BTC continues a controlled pullback, retesting 89.2k and extending toward 87.6k as long liquidity below is targeted.

Bounce scenario (≈30%): If 89.2k holds with CVD flattening, expect a relief move to 90.6k–92.4k, but with weak follow-through unless high-timeframe EMAs reclaim.

Low-probability bullish reversal (≈10%): Requires aggressive spot buying and whale accumulation.

Conclusion

Despite the Fed cut, flow-based signals remain bearish. Expect one more liquidity sweep downward within 24h unless CVD turns positive and BTC reclaims 91k+. Stay tactical, avoid chasing longs, and let liquidity zones dictate direction.