BTC 24H Quant Forecast — Smart Money Still in Control

BTC continues trading inside a heavy compression zone, and the signals across multi-timeframes are lining up for a decisive move. Here’s the clean quant breakdown:

1️⃣ Trend Structure

15m: Micro-trend flipped bearish again. EMA7 < EMA20 < EMA50.

1H: Sideways-bearish. Price repeatedly rejected from the 1H mid-band (90,250).

4H: Full EMA compression + lower highs → momentum weakening.

1D: Clear rejection from daily EMAs; structure still in a correction cycle.

Overall: BTC is still in a short-term downtrend until 90,800 is reclaimed.

2️⃣ Smart Money Positioning

Across both Top Traders and Whales:

Longs are losing (avg entries around 92,500).

Shorts are winning (avg entries around 95,100).

Profitability:

Longs: 40%

Shorts: ~72%

Smart money remains positioned on the short side, and retail is overloaded with longs.

3️⃣ Orderflow & CVD

Spot CVD: deep negative → real buyers stepping back.

Perp CVD: negative → more closing longs + opening shorts.

Open Interest remains high (~87.7k) → energy building for a large move.

4️⃣ Key Liquidity Levels

Downside liquidity magnets:

89,300

88,900

87,600 – 87,300 (major long liquidation pools)

Upside liquidity (requires strength):

90,800

92,000

Price is currently drifting toward lower-side liquidity.

5️⃣ 24H Forecast (Quant Bias)

Main Scenario — Bearish Sweep (62%)

BTC likely taps:

➡️ 89,300 → 88,900 → 87,600 – 87,300

before any meaningful bounce.

Range Scenario (28%)

BTC chops inside 89,300 – 90,600.

Bullish Alternative (10%)

Only activates if BTC reclaims 90,800,

then closes above 92,000.

Final Take

Momentum weakens, retail is trapped long, and smart money shorts are comfortably in profit. Until BTC reclaims 90.8k, downside liquidity remains the magnet.

Watch 87.6k–87.3k — this is the high-value sweep zone for potential reversal.

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