🚨 Alert: Market Confidence Shaken? The Probability of BTC Breaking $100,000 Again This Year Drops to 28% 🚨

🟣 1. Core Signal: The Derivatives Market is “Voting”

• Data from the Kalshi platform, where traders are betting real money on future events.

• Current contracts show only a 28% chance that BTC can break $100,000 again in the remaining time this year.

• This is not just an opinion; it is a quantitative indicator of market sentiment, reflecting a strong cautious attitude in the short term.

🟩 2. What Does This Mean for Traders?

• The authorities have not made a statement, but this represents the “thermometer” of the professional trading community.

• Market focus may have shifted from “when will it break the previous high” to “where is the support level” and “how long will the consolidation last.”

• Potential Impacts:

- Short-term upward momentum weakens, and the market may need more time to accumulate strength.

- This creates different opportunity windows for dollar-cost averagers and swing traders.

- It reminds us: In the crypto market, collective expectations are an important force that needs to be traded.

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