The supply of new investors (First Buyers Supply, FBS) refers to the quantity of BTC purchased for the first time and held. Compared to the 'number of new addresses', it more accurately reflects the current investor risk appetite and changes in market demand strength.
In this cycle, there is a market participation structure that is very different from previous cycles, such as ETF buyers, BTC treasury companies, options market makers, and so on. Therefore, the behavior patterns of investors have also changed significantly. Once all of these are on-chain, the data representing new buyer behavior is closely related to BTC market trends.
The FBS curve began a rapid decline on October 24, lasting for more than a month, while the BTC price also fell rapidly. The logic behind this is very easy to understand:
The market's concerns over various macro uncertainties, as well as pessimistic expectations surrounding the traditional four-year bull-bear cycle transition, have led to a significant drop in new demand. There is not enough purchasing power to support the continuous distribution of long-term profit chips, and as prices fall, more short-term trapped chips panic and flee—entering a death spiral.
To reverse this situation, it must start from the top level. When the market gradually interprets macro expectations as 'positive' or 'confidence,' new demand will gradually recover, and the FBS curve will bottom out and rebound. Just like we see now, there have been signs of gradual stabilization since December 1.
However, the rebound of the FBS curve will not immediately lead to a V-shaped reversal in the BTC price.
From the cases of July-September 24 (Figure 2) and March-April 25 (Figure 3), we can see that the transition of the FBS curve from rapid decline to gradual stabilization is just the first step. To truly confirm the bottom and rebound requires a relatively longer process (measured in months).
During this process, the BTC price often fluctuates up and down, and may even test the bottom a second time. However, it is this process of fluctuating and bottoming that is the most torturous and tests one's mindset. When a pullback occurs, you set a lower price in your mind; when there is an increase, you worry about missing a potentially reversing market.
Therefore, subjective bias is the greatest inner demon of us traders! At this time, we should rely on objective data to guide us; as long as the data continues to improve, the overall direction will not be wrong. So why worry about momentary ups and downs?
