The global crypto market exhibits a phase of corrective consolidation as of December 11, 2025, with a total capitalization around $3.1–3.2 trillion and Bitcoin dominance close to 55–57%, reflecting institutional caution ahead of macro decisions like the Fed meeting and concerns over AI that erode risk appetite. Bitcoin leads the weakness with quotes in the $90,000–92,000 range after weekly declines of 2–5%, while altcoins like Ethereum and Solana amplify movements with volatilities of 4–16% over short periods, creating a tactical environment for traders but risky for long positions without confirmation.

Macro and technical outlook

Bitcoin consolidates below the 30-day moving average (~92,387 USD), with key supports at 89,000–88,000 USD and 24h volume declining (~57 million USD), signaling lower year-end liquidity and possible profit-taking by long-term holders. Ethereum maintains relative stability at ~3,100–3,900 EUR/USD equivalent, but with mixed flows towards stablecoins and on-chain data indicating selective rotation towards layer 1 altcoins like Solana, which has accumulated weekly declines of 16% but preserves superior liquidity. The altseason index remains low (around 32), favoring defensive strategies in a market sensitive to catalysts such as Fed rate cuts or regulatory news.

Sector dynamics

  • Memecoins and high volatility: Assets like SPX6900 show daily corrections of 5.5% and -72% from July highs, with low volumes and a bearish bias (price ~0.63 USD under SMA-7/15), ideal only for scalping at intraday supports (~0.61 USD).

  • Infrastructure altcoins: Solana (~136–138 USD) and similar assets exhibit wide ranges (-1.4% daily, -16% weekly), with potential rebound if BTC stabilizes, supported by adoption in DeFi but exposed to liquidations in derivatives.

  • On-chain factors: Transfers of ~170,000 BTC from cold wallets to exchanges suggest institutional selling, while risk appetite cools due to the AI boom and uncertain regulation, limiting year-end euphoria.

For institutional or advanced profiles, prioritize short tactical positions in BTC/ETH with stops above 94,500–95,000 USD and targets at 86,000–89,000 USD, reserving 20–30% of the portfolio for selective longs in SOL or altcoins with relative momentum if a bullish breakout is confirmed post-Fed. Maintain low leverage (x3–x5 maximum) and total exposure no greater than 2% per trade, monitoring volume and financing rates in perpetuals to avoid chain liquidations. December historically favors altcoins in recovery phases, but the base scenario projects lateral ranges until clear catalysts, with the risk of bearish extension if BTC loses 88,000 USD.