Economy
CNI projects GDP growth of 1.8% in 2026
According to the entity, high interest rates and weak employment are expected to slow down the economy
After growing 2.5% in 2025, the Brazilian economy is expected to advance 1.8% in 2026, according to projections by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI) released this Wednesday (10). The estimates are included in the Brazilian Economy Report 2025-2026, which indicates that the pace of activity will continue to be pressured by the high level of interest rates and the weakening of the labor market.
High interest rates
According to the CNI, the Selic rate will close 2026 at 12% per year, down from the current 15% per year. Inflation is expected to end the year at 4.1%, within the target range of 3%, with a tolerance band of 1.5 percentage points up or down.
Real interest rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) are estimated at 7.9% for the next year. Above the neutral interest rate of 5% per year, according to the entity's assessment, interest rates continue to limit investment and economic growth.
According to the CNI, the combination of expensive credit, weaker domestic demand, and increased imports is expected to continue affecting the industry, especially the transformation sector, which is expected to grow only 0.5% next year, the worst performance among industrial segments.
The services sector is expected to be the main driver of economic expansion next year, with a growth of 1.9%, according to the report.$BANK
