The old players in the crypto circle all understand: "When the market is grinding, it often hides knives that are harsher than a crash"—This phrase fits today's BNB like a glove.
Open the 4-hour chart, and the discerning eye can immediately see the cage of the "converging triangle": the high points have been pressed from 928 down to 882, while the low points have slowly risen from 801 to 875, a typical "bull-bear arm wrestling". You might say this is building up strength? The 24-hour trading volume is only 119 million, with a net outflow of 1.09 million, and funds seem to be avoiding it like a plague; you might say this is about to crash? RSI is stuck at 47, neither up nor down, KDJ has just lifted its head from the oversold zone, the MACD red bars have shrunk but haven't turned green—it's a vivid depiction of "boiling a frog in warm water", and newbies are likely to be repeatedly harvested.
But today's BNB is not determined by 'technical analysis'. Yesterday Binance just announced a hard fork: on December 16th, BEP20 deposits and withdrawals will be suspended, and the network will be upgraded next year in January. In the past, this would have been hyped as 'positive expectations', but why is there no movement today? I think it's because, first, 'the wolf is here' has been shouted too many times - this year BNB Chain has been upgraded three times, and users are already numb; secondly, they just delisted trading pairs like LISTA/BNB yesterday, and the community is already a bit panicked, with funds hesitant to enter.
Let me interject a candid remark: BNB's current situation resembles the 'Binance Life' meme coin market from October this year - the community was buzzing with excitement, but the coin price just consolidated. When retail investors could no longer hold and had to sell at a loss, it shot up directly to a market value of 450 million with a big bullish candle. Today's triangular consolidation is essentially a 'strategic wash by the main force': look at the support level at 801; it's the rebound bottom after the crash at the end of November. Would the main force dare to break through? No, if they do, their own chips will be trapped; but if they pull up, there are a pile of trapped sell orders at the resistance level of 928, which will cost money to break free - so they simply 'grind', grinding until retail investors hand over their chips and until the news of the hard fork ferments into consensus.
Someone asked: 'Tianshi, can we get in today?' My answer is: 'Lightly touch the wave of the 'fluctuation range', don't go all in.' Look at today's market, around 880 there are 110,000 buy orders piled up, while above 880.5 the sell orders are sparse, indicating that in the short term it's just 'swaying in the cage of 875-885'. If you really want to take action, buy at the lower edge and sell at the upper edge, don't expect to get rich overnight - after all, the whole cryptocurrency world is waiting for the signal of 'Bitcoin breaking 40,000', and BNB, as a platform coin, has always been a 'follower in rising markets, not in declining ones'.
Speaking of this, I remember the BNB market from last December: back then it was also a hard fork and a triangular consolidation. As a result, three days before the announcement, it shot up from 800 to 1100. Today's script is simply a 'replica' - the only difference is that this year BNB Chain has reached 5 million daily active users and the supply of stablecoins has doubled, making the fundamentals much stronger than last year.
Finally, a reminder for everyone: keep an eye on two signals in the next few days - either a volume breakout at the upper triangle at 890, or the good news from the hard fork being 'snatched up' by the 'smart money' in advance. I've been holding BNB since 2017, having seen it rise from 20 dollars to 1300, and fall back to 80; the nature of this currency is 'endure the loneliness to gain the meat'.
Tomorrow I will keep an eye on the market to see if the main force will 'make moves' based on tonight's U.S. stock market performance - if you don't want to stay up late, hit follow, and I'll post a screenshot of the 'breakthrough signal' in the comments tomorrow morning so we can all ride this wave of 'hard fork dividends' together.
Twelve years of financial journey, the exclusive secrets of a pioneer in the cryptocurrency world: insight into the market, steady progress, pay attention to the teachings of Tianshi about how to steadily increase value. In investment, risks and opportunities coexist; blind operations are a major taboo in the cryptocurrency world!
