The pitfalls of the crypto world are always 'watching it take off, but in reality it's burying people'— today's DOGE is just showing you this saying engraved on the K line.
This morning I opened the 4-hour chart on OKEX and I laughed at the wobbly little candlestick of DOGE: this wave of movement is clearly a 'pain strategy' performed by the main force for retail investors. First, look at the most eye-catching part—the green triangle in the chart, seasoned players know this is called the 'bearish ABCD pattern', and now the price is just stuck at point D, which is marked as 'enticing?' Yesterday, there were still newcomers in the community shouting 'Musk is going to tweet, DOGE is going to 0.2', but look at that 2,420,000 outflow on the right—if they really want to pump it, would the main force give you the chips?
This situation reminds me of the DOGE market last October: back then it also hit a similar high point, and the community was full of calls for 'breaking the previous high', but the next day a big bearish candle directly broke the support, and retail investors who chased in were trapped for half a month. Today's trend is simply a copy-paste — although the MACD green bars have shrunk a bit, the DIF is still lying below the DEA, the RSI is stuck in the weak zone at 42, and the KDJ has dropped to around 10, how is this going to rise? It’s clearly 'the bears take a breather, preparing for the second wave of selling'.
Combining today’s news: although an old story about 'Tesla possibly integrating DOGE for payments' has been dug up and stirred, if you look at the on-chain data — the holdings of large accounts decreased by 480 million yesterday, and the inflow of ETF funds was only 2 million, not even a fraction of BTC. It's like 'merchants say they want to sell goods, but first clear out half of what’s in their warehouse', clearly using the news to offload. Plus, today the overall market is also weak; BTC just dropped from 91000 to 89000, and the upward momentum in the entire market has dried up, can an emotional currency like DOGE stand alone?
My personal judgment is clear: in this 4-hour cycle, DOGE is just 'a false rebound and real unloading'. The support level to watch first is 0.1366, and if this position can't hold, the next pit will be 0.13 — don't think 0.13 is the solid bottom, last June it dropped directly from 0.14 to 0.08, emotional currencies never have a 'bottom line'.
To be honest, seeing new friends in the group flaunting long positions on DOGE makes me really nervous. The cryptocurrency market has never been about 'if you think it will rise, it will rise', but rather 'the big players want you to think it will rise, and then they trap you at the top of the mountain.'
Before 12 o'clock tonight, if DOGE can stabilize at 0.142, I will live stream eating my keyboard; but if it breaks through 0.138, remember to check if you have your stop loss set — after all, we came to this market to make money, not to be the ‘bag holder’ for the big players.
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