The bullish candlestick in the crypto world comes in two types: one that gives you money, and one that sets a trap for you — today’s LUNA ‘trap bullish’ is obviously the latter.
Looking at the 4-hour K line, I watched LUNA plummet from 0.248 all the way down to 0.16, and my first reaction was, "The old script is playing again." Yesterday's hawkish rate cut from the Federal Reserve just landed, and Bitcoin pulled the market up to 97000. Many retail investors were watching LUNA's 29% increase from a few days ago, thinking this was another 'small coin rebound', but when that big bullish candlestick touched 0.248 in the early morning, it directly became a 'bull trap' — this scene is very similar to last year's SOL 'pump and dump', the more it rises, the harder it traps you.
Today's crash of LUNA is essentially a double whammy of 'market sentiment + its own selling pressure'. First, looking at the macro situation: the Federal Reserve said last night, 'this may be the last rate cut', and added, 'inflation is not fully under control', which directly smashed Bitcoin from 97000 back to 91000. In this kind of 'leading crash' market, small coins have always been 'falling with the market rather than rising'. I checked OKEX's liquidation data, and today's 24-hour liquidation volume for LUNA hit 1.21 million, with long positions accounting for 610,000; the largest single long position was liquidated around 0.23 — this is a typical case of 'retail investors chasing highs and getting trapped', as it falls, more people are forced to close their positions, forming a 'cascade-type decline'.
Looking at LUNA itself: this coin rose from 0.065 to 0.248, which is essentially 'emotional speculation of air coins', with no project dynamics and no institutional holdings, relying entirely on retail investors' 'FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment' to support it. Yesterday, a fan sent me a message saying 'I bought half a position at 0.22', and I replied, 'set a stop-loss at 0.18', but in the afternoon he sent me a screenshot showing 'lost 30%' — this kind of 'illogical chasing of highs' is just giving away money in the coin circle.
Say something more heart-wrenching: today's support at 0.16 is actually a 'pseudo-support'. Looking at the K-line indicators, the RSI is about to drop to 30, and the green bars of the MACD are still elongating. Although the trading volume has shrunk, the 'decreased volume and falling' is not at the bottom; it's 'no one is buying'. I checked the historical trends, and LUNA had similar market conditions last year: it dropped from 0.3 to 0.08, and each 'seemingly stabilizing' point in between was the starting point for the next wave of declines.
Moreover, there was a detail today: OKEX's LUNA had a large sell order of 8.51 million coins, which is clearly 'main force pressing the plate' — do you think 0.16 can hold? They were already waiting to break through this position and trap the last batch of retail investors who bought the dip.
Writing this, I actually feel a bit emotional: after mixing in the coin circle for so many years, I've seen too many cycles of 'chasing highs - getting trapped - cutting losses'. Today's wave of LUNA is essentially a 'harvesting game of emotional markets' — when the market is good, even air coins can fly; when the market cools down, the first to fall are those rootless small coins.
If LUNA breaks below 0.15 tomorrow, it may trigger a wave of 'panic selling'; but if it can stabilize at 0.18, there might be a short opportunity for a 'rebound from overselling'. However, I must say honestly: with such coins, you earn 'heart-thumping money' and lose real cash — if you don't have the ability to time it right, it's better to sit in Bitcoin and sip some soup.
The twelve-year financial journey, the exclusive secret of pioneers in the coin circle: insight into the market, steady progress, pay attention to the Master’s teachings on how to achieve steady appreciation, risk and opportunity coexist in investment, blind operations are a big taboo in the coin circle!
