The long-term future of Ethereum is back in the spotlight after Arthur Hayes presented a broad forecast about the institutional future of the asset, its price potential, and its competitive space.
His comments came as Ethereum trades near $3,200, moving between $3,060 and $3,440 in the last week. Major players like Tom Lee's BitMine also increased their ETH holdings at an unprecedented rate.
Ethereum becomes the primary choice for institutions
Hayes believes the market still does not understand how deeply traditional institutions plan to integrate Ethereum. He argues that after years of failed experiments with private blockchains, banks now recognize the need for a public layer for settlement.
“These organizations finally understand that you cannot have a private blockchain; you must use a public blockchain for security and real use,” he said.
He links this shift to the rise of stablecoins, which has forced banks to recognize the value of on-chain settlement.
According to Hayes, Ethereum is positioned as the only platform with the security, liquidity, and depth of developers that institutions need.
He expects this change to drive a significant price resurgence for Ethereum in the next cycle, alongside aggressive treasury accumulation by companies like BitMine.
BitMine purchased 33,504 ETH (112 million dollars) this week and 138,452 ETH (~435 million dollars) in early December, bringing its total to nearly 3.86 million ETH. That level of accumulation has strengthened the narrative that institutions are positioning themselves for the next big Ethereum cycle.
Hayes acknowledges that Ethereum still lacks the privacy guarantees required by large institutions. He points out that this is “the most important thing that Ethereum still lacks,” but says that Vitalik Buterin's roadmap is already addressing this issue.
Despite this shortcoming, he maintains that institutional adoption will not be delayed. Instead, companies will use privacy-enabled Layer 2 networks and rely on ETH for settlement.
He believes that Ethereum's Layer 1 remains the “security base,” regardless of whether activity occurs on L2s like Arbitrum or Optimism.
“There may need to be a debate on how fees are distributed between L2 and Ethereum L1,” he commented, but emphasized that this does not change the main reality: institutions will continue to secure their operations through Ethereum.
This coincides with current ecosystem trends. Balances on exchanges are at multi-year lows, and whales have accumulated over 900,000 ETH in recent weeks, according to data from Santiment.
Institutional infrastructure continues to form around the base layer of Ethereum, even as fees drop following the migration to L2.
A small group of winners: Ethereum first, Solana second
Hayes sees that the future of public blockchains will consolidate into a very small group. He places Ethereum as the clear long-term winner, with Solana in a distant but resilient second place.
He attributes Solana's rise from $7 to $300 to the intense activity of memecoins in 2023 and 2024. However, he claims that Solana “needs a new strategy” to surpass Ethereum again.
Although he expects Solana to remain relevant, he does not believe it will match the institutional role or the long-term price strength of ETH.
Hayes considers that almost all other Layer 1s are structurally weak. He dismissed high FDV blockchains like Monad, considering them overvalued projects that are likely to collapse after an initial push.
50 ETH to be a millionaire before the next elections
Hayes offered his clearest numerical prediction when asked how much ETH would be needed to be a millionaire in the next cycle.
He stated that Ethereum could reach $20,000, implying that 50 ETH would be enough to achieve a seven-figure portfolio.
The founder of BitMex expects this price target to materialize by the next U.S. presidential elections. His forecast aligns with the current supply environment: reserves on exchanges continue to fall, institutions are accumulating, and treasury buyers like BitMine continue to invest hundreds of millions in ETH.
If Ethereum does not meet these expectations, Hayes says it will be due to a change in the narrative. Additionally, if the use of stablecoins decreases or institutions move away from on-chain trading, Bitcoin could surpass Ethereum for an extended period.
However, he argues that the current market structure favors the long-term dominance of ETH—especially as banks prepare to execute Web3 strategies on public infrastructure.
