12.12

I. Overnight Themes and Industrial Logic Review

1. Commercial Aerospace: The industry narrative is grand, and details are constantly being filled in.

Core Logic: SpaceX has clarified its IPO timetable (late 2026) and its expectation of a valuation of 100 billion USD, establishing a clear valuation anchor for the global track. The domestic Wenchang satellite super factory is about to begin production, solving the bottleneck of scalable capacity. The industry is transitioning from 'story' to 'orders'.

New Focus - Aerospace Cables: The value of single satellite and single rocket cables revealed by Hualing Cables (rocket at the tens of millions level, satellite at the millions level) has drawn market attention to a previously underpriced niche track. During the peak period of network launches, the performance elasticity of such core supporting enterprises may exceed expectations.

Strategic Perspective: The overall trend of the sector remains intact, but operational difficulty has increased. It is necessary to firmly implement the strategy of 'eliminating the weak and retaining the strong, focusing on the core'.

Key Focus: Platform-type Leaders: China Satellite (overall satellite). Core Support: Aerospace Power (engine), Aerospace Electronics (control system). Newly Emerging Segment: Hualing Cables (cable connections, requiring verification of order sustainability).

2. Hainan Free Trade Zone: Countdown Phase 'Event-Driven' Game

Core Logic: The countdown to the full island customs closure enters its final week on December 18. The institutional reform of 'loosening the first line and controlling the second line' is a substantial benefit, but the market has anticipated it for a long time. Strategic Perspective: A typical 'good news is bad news' high-volatility theme. Stock prices have shown fatigue in reaction to news about customs closure preparations, displaying a 'good one day, bad the next' pattern.

Participation requires precise grasp of event nodes, and prolonged battles are not advisable. Small positions can focus on companies with substantial business in areas such as duty-free and logistics, but caution is needed for possible profit-taking pressure in the latter half of this week.

3. Cross-Strait Integration/Consumer Sector: Continuous Policy Warm Winds, but Insufficient Sector Synergy

Core Logic: Fujian's measures benefiting Taiwan continue to be refined, and the Ministry of Commerce is promoting retail innovation models. The logic lies in regional economic integration and stimulating domestic demand.

Strategic Perspective: The sector lacks a grand industry narrative like that of commercial aerospace, and is more about thematic opportunities driven by policies. Yesterday, Dongbai Group reached five consecutive boards but exploded throughout the day, showing insufficient confidence from capital and weak follow-up effects.

This direction needs leading companies (Dongbai, Xiamen Port) to outperform expectations in order to activate the sector; otherwise, it remains part of a rapid rotation.

4. Beijing Stock Exchange: Emotional Game Under Rumor Disturbance

Core Logic: Rumors during trading about 'changes in IPO policies' stimulated unusual movements in certain stocks. The North Exchange 50 Index fund is about to celebrate its third anniversary, which may also attract some attention.

Strategic Perspective: Purely event and emotion-driven, with extreme volatility, making it difficult for ordinary investors to operate. It is recommended to remain cautious and use it as a side indicator to observe market active funds.

5. Cable and Other Niche Areas: Value Re-evaluation, Attention to Logic Diffusion

The disclosure of the value of single rocket and satellite cables by Hualing Cables is a typical case of 'value re-evaluation' in the commercial aerospace industry chain.

It reminds us that in the mid-to-late stage of thematic investment, the market will spontaneously delve into the details of the industry chain to uncover sub-segments that have not been fully priced. This suggests that subsequent trends may shift from a broad rally to a deep exploration of core subsystems, key materials, and specialized equipment in niche areas.

II. Strategy

1) New Hotspots? Two major events have landed, and many experts are interpreting the press releases tonight, such as the first being domestic demand, followed by innovation, and the new proposal for stabilizing the birth population scale, etc. However, these are all superficial; the real discourse power lies in tomorrow's market quantification of which choice to make, which is also the current market's helplessness.

2. Friday to Monday, Thursday is again a typical ICU, especially at the end of trading when even prominent figures like Yi Zhongtian are accelerating downwards, indicating that selling pressure has reached its peak. On Friday, there may be a plunge, possibly leading to a widespread rebound.

Summary: The rebound on Friday has already become a formula; the new hotspot from the press release is hard to guess, but at the end of 2014, there was a period when every Friday saw a rally in brokerages. Let's see if this will also become a current trend. Pay attention to whether internet finance brokerages perform similarly to last Friday.