The Bitcoin price, gold price, and silver price continue to trade with a bullish bias this week, while the largest crypto and the two safe commodities leave the Fed's interest rate decision behind.
After policymakers decided to lower the interest rate by a quarter percentage point, data shows that the stock market is no longer projecting fear. We last saw such a clear shift at the beginning of October.
Bitcoin, gold, silver: updated price forecast now that calm returns to the stock market
The American stock market reached an all-time high on Thursday, December 11. Analysts expect that more increases are on the way. This follows the Fed's decision to lower interest rates, which is generally positive for stocks.
Lower borrowing costs lead to more corporate profits, stimulate business investments, and increase future yields. Cheaper lending also leads to more consumer spending, while investors shift from bonds to stocks to achieve higher returns.
This together creates more liquidity and risk acceptance, causing stock prices to often rise in multiple sectors. This alleviates fear in the stock market.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin, gold, and silver also show optimism. Both XAU and XAG are rising in price as holding costs decline and inflation expectations increase.
Bullish reversal for Bitcoin price now that liquidity is returning.
The daily chart of Bitcoin shows that the price is recovering within a clearly ascending channel, formed after the sharp correction from the highs of early October.
Although the price is still below the key exponential moving averages (50 and 100 at $96,583 and $101,943 respectively), BTC already shows early signs of trend stabilization. Each recent low is higher than the previous one, which is a typical recovery pattern.
The bullish Volume Profiles (green horizontal bars) show a notable high-volume zone around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This suggests that bulls may defend the level of $90,358 as an important support level.
This level can act as an anchor point for a possible price turn and can thus be a starting point for the next rise.
A clear candle close above the level of $90,358 could send BTC towards the larger liquidity area around $98,000–$103,000.
Meanwhile, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) remains neutral, indicating that there is room for expansion in both directions.
The histograms of the AO (Awesome Oscillator) creep towards positive and turn green, indicating that bullish momentum is strengthening.
Still, the short-term bullish scenario depends on holding the upward channel. If BTC breaks below the bottom of the channel, coinciding with the 78.6% Fibonacci level of $90,358, bearish pressure may arise and BTC could drop to the range of $86,000 to $80,600.
The main challenge is reclaiming the EMAs, especially the 50-day and 100-day, which are around $96,583 and $101,943.
Historically, BTC often accelerates once the price rises above these moving averages during mid-cycle consolidations.
All in all, BTC shows a controlled recovery, increasing volume, and a constructive channel, but real confirmation will only come once the bulls reclaim the psychological level of $100,000.
Gold price strengthens breakout momentum above important resistance level.
On the 4-hour chart of the XAU/USD pair, it can be seen that the gold price is flirting with a breakout from a long, increasingly narrow symmetrical triangle. This pattern emerged after the sharp decline of $490 (-11.19%) earlier this quarter.
Symmetrical triangles at the end of an upward trend often act as continuation patterns, where the price consolidates and then resumes the previous direction. The breakout of gold fits this pattern and breaks strongly above the downward trend line.
The measured movement from the triangle projects a potential price target around $4,720, more than 11% above the breakout point.
Currently, the gold price stabilizes around $4,273, where the breakout candle closed. As long as gold remains above the top of the triangle, the bullish structure remains intact.
Traders considering long positions on XAU/USD may want to wait for a successful retest of the upper trend line.
The RSI is in the middle of the range but leans bullish at 65, indicating that gold is not yet overbought. The RSI shows increasing momentum, which is generally a positive continuation signal.
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) lines have crossed bullish and are diverging, indicating growing upward strength.
Important support levels to watch are $4,180, $4,140, $4,098, and the deeper pivot point at $3,998, marking the lowest point of the previous correction. As long as the gold price remains above these levels, the bulls maintain control.
It is also good to note that the breakout of gold aligns with the broader macro trend: increasing geopolitical uncertainty, persistent inflation expectations, and strong demand from central banks.
Technically, the structure supports the possibility of reaching or even exceeding the recent highs.
Silver price long-term cup-and-handle signal indicates great upward potential.
The multi-year chart of the silver price shows one of the strongest long-term bullish structures in commodities: a large multi-cycle Cup & Handle breakout.
The cup runs from the peak in 1980 to the rejection in 2011, a rise of 871%. The handle, smaller yet powerful, forms a pattern with a movement of 152% between 2011 and 2024. Both patterns converge at the same breakout line around $36, a level that silver has not been able to break for over 40 years.
The last candle shows a clear breakout with significant volume well above this resistance. This indicates a structural change rather than a temporary peak.
When a commodity breaks through a multi-year resistance, price discovery can often happen quickly due to little historical resistance remaining.
The RSI is now in the overbought area (above 80). However, in long-term breakouts, this often indicates momentum, not exhaustion. The MACD has strongly swung bullish, confirming the upward trend.
If the breakout remains intact, the next important psychological level is around $70. The all-time high zone from 1980/2011, now around $50, has changed to support.
Due to the long consolidation and tight multi-year supply in the silver market, a breakout above the historical highs is certainly possible.
Still, silver historically remains volatile. A retest of the $36 zone would be normal before the price can continue to rise.
