Bitcoin is approaching Christmas 2025 in a fragile yet interesting position. The price hovers around the area of $93,000 after weeks of pressure. Four key charts show a market in an advanced correction phase, but still lacking a true bullish signal.
The data highlights three major forces at play. Recent buyers are recording heavy losses, while new whales are capitulating as well. Macro conditions continue to drive the price, although the strength of spot buying is quietly returning.
Short-term Bitcoin holders are suffering deeply.
The first chart tracks the profits and losses realized by short-term holders (STH). This group includes coins purchased in recent months. Their "realized price" represents the average purchase cost of these coins.
At the beginning of 2025, STH had strong gains. Their average position was between 15% and 20% in profit as Bitcoin continued to rise. This phase favored profit-taking and increased selling pressure near the highs.
Today the situation has flipped. Bitcoin is trading below the realized price of STH, and the group is recording about -10% in losses. The histogram on the chart is red, marking one of the most pronounced loss periods of 2025.
This has two consequences.
In the short term, these loss-holding investors may sell at every bounce. Many simply want to exit at breakeven, which limits upward moves towards their entry zone.
However, deep and persistent loss phases usually appear in the final stages of corrections. They indicate that weak hands have already suffered significant damage.
At some point, the selling power of this group runs out.
Historically, the turning signal comes when the price again exceeds the realized price of STH from below. This movement indicates that forced selling has substantially ended and that new demand is absorbing the supply.
Until that happens, the chart still calls for caution and range trading around current levels.
New Bitcoin whales have just capitulated.
The second chart shows the profits and losses realized by whale cohorts. Flows are divided between "new whales" and "old whales." New whales are large holders who have recently accumulated.
Yesterday, new whales recorded $386 million in losses in a single day. Their bar on the chart is a large negative spike. Several other strong negative bars accumulate at the recent lows.
Old whales tell a different story. Their losses and realized profits are more contained and balanced. They are not exiting the market at the same pace as newcomers.
This pattern is typical of the final stages of a correction. New whales often buy late, sometimes with leverage or pushed by a strong narrative. When the price moves against them, they are the first to capitulate.
This capitulation brings a structural advantage. Coins pass from the weak hands of large holders to stronger hands or to small buyers. The risk of further future sales by this group decreases after similar events.
In the short term, these "flushes" can still push the price down. But in the medium term, they improve the quality of the Bitcoin holder base.
The market becomes more resilient once the large panic sellers have finished exiting.
Real interest rates still drive Bitcoin.
The third chart overlays Bitcoin onto inverted two-year US real yields. Real yields measure interest rates net of inflation. The series moves almost in unison with BTC throughout 2025.
When real yields decline, the inverted line rises. Bitcoin tends to rise along with this line when liquidity improves. Lower real yields make risky assets more attractive compared to safe bonds.
Since the end of summer, real yields have started to rise again. The inverted line began to fall, and Bitcoin followed it downward. This shows that macro conditions continue to influence the main trend.
Federal Reserve rate cuts alone may not be a panacea. What matters is how markets expect real debt costs to evolve. If inflation expectations fall faster than nominal rates, real yields can also rise.
For Bitcoin, a new sustainable bull phase likely requires more accommodating real conditions. As long as bond markets do not price this change, BTC rallies will face a macroeconomic obstacle.
Spot taker buyers are returning.
The fourth chart tracks the 90-day CVD of spot takers on major exchanges. The CVD measures the net volume of market orders crossing the spread.
Shows whether aggressive buyers or sellers dominate.
For several weeks during the drawdown, the regime was dominated by sell takers. Red bars filled the chart as sellers hit offer prices in spot markets. This was in line with the continuing price decline.
Now the signal has reversed. The metric has just shifted to dominance of buy takers, with the return of green bars. Now aggressive buyers outnumber aggressive sellers on spot platforms.
This is an early but significant change. Trend reversals often begin with changes in microstructure like this. First, buyers intervene, then the price stabilizes, and then more consistent flows follow.
One day of data is never enough. However, a sustained regime of green bars would confirm that real demand has returned. It would show that spot markets are absorbing supply coming from STH and capitulating whales.
What does all this mean for the price of Bitcoin heading into Christmas?
Taken together, the four charts highlight an advanced correction, not a new bull market.
Short-term holders and new whales are suffering significant losses and continue to sell when strength is recorded. Macro real yields continue to dampen risk appetite at the index level.
At the same time, some signs of recovery are starting to appear. The capitulation of new whales cleanses the base of holders.
Spot taker buyers are returning, slowing the rate of declines.
Looking towards Christmas 2025, Bitcoin appears trapped in a range with a slight downward inclination, oscillating around $90,000.
Crashes towards the mid or high range of $80,000 remain possible if real yields remain high. A clearly bullish change would likely require three signals together:
First, the price must recover the price realized by short-term holders and maintain it. Second, two-year real yields should reverse downward, easing financial conditions.
Third, the dominance of buy takers should persist, confirming strong spot demand.
Before this combination presents itself, traders will face an uncertain market shaped by macroeconomic data and locked holders. Long-term investors may also see this phase as a planning zone rather than a moment for aggressive bets.
