Bitcoin is entering the Christmas season of 2025 in a vulnerable yet interesting situation, with prices hovering around USD 93,000 after facing continuous pressure for several weeks. Data from four key charts reflect that the market is in the late stages of a correction but still lacks a clear upward momentum.
Data indicates three major driving forces affecting the market, while new buyers face severe losses and new whale groups are gradually selling. Overall economic changes still dictate price direction, even though buying power in the spot market is quietly starting to return.
Short-term Bitcoin holders are facing a severe crisis.
The first graph tracks the realized gains and losses of short-term holders (STH). This group consists of coins recently purchased over the past few months. The actual holding price of this group is the average cost of those coins.
Earlier in 2025, STHs made significant profits, with their average positions showing profits of around 15–20% as Bitcoin surged. This phase of correction led many holders to sell for profit, increasing selling pressure near high price levels.
However, the picture today is different. Bitcoin is trading below the recognized STH price, and this group has a loss position of about -10%. The histogram graph has turned red, indicating one of the deepest loss periods in 2025.
This situation has two outcomes.
In the short term, these stuck holders can sell every time the price rebounds. Many hope to sell at the breakeven loss point, which pressures the price increase to not surpass their original buying zone.
However, periods of heavy and continuous losses like this often occur towards the end of corrections, indicating that weakhearted holders have already been significantly affected.
At some point, the selling pressure from this group will start to diminish.
Historically, significant reversal signals occur when prices return above the recognized STH price again, as such movements indicate that forced selling is over and new demand absorbs this released supply.
But before that phenomenon occurs, the graph still indicates that caution is needed, and prices are expected to move within the current levels.
New Bitcoin whales have capitulated.
The second graph shows the realized gains and losses of the whale group, separating the cash flow between new whales and old whales. New whales are large holders who have recently accumulated coins.
Yesterday, new whales incurred real losses of 386 million USD in a single day, with their graph bars showing a large negative spike in the chart. Additionally, there are other large negative spikes clustered around recent lows.
But for old whales, the situation is different because their realized gains and losses are smaller and more balanced. They are not exiting the market as quickly as those new whales.
This trend is often observed towards the end of price corrections. New whales tend to buy in the late stages. Sometimes they use leverage or believe too much in trending markets, and when prices go against them, everyone tends to capitulate first.
But the capitulation of this group has structural benefits because coins will flow from weak holders to stronger hands or more retail buyers. Subsequently, the selling pressure from this group in the future will decrease after such events.
Although in the short term, this event can push prices down further, in the medium term, it will improve the quality of Bitcoin holders.
And when the large sellers panic and exit the market, it will strengthen the market again.
Real interest rates continue to lead Bitcoin.
This third graph compares Bitcoin with the two-year real yield of the United States (in an inverted scale), where the real yield is the interest rate after inflation. Both values move in parallel throughout 2025.
And when real yields decrease, the inverted line moves up, Bitcoin often rises during times of improved liquidity. Lower real yields make risky assets more attractive than safe bonds.
Since late last summer, real yields have risen again. The inverted line has been trending down, and Bitcoin has followed suit, indicating that macroeconomic conditions remain the primary factor determining the larger price trend.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may not be enough to rectify the situation. What will be decisive is the market's expectations regarding the actual borrowing costs in the future. If inflation expectations fall faster than real interest rates, the real yield may even increase.
For Bitcoin, a strong upward trend may have to wait until real lending conditions ease. Until the bond market reflects such changes, BTC's rebound is still pressured by macroeconomic conditions.
Spot Taker buyers are coming back again.
This fourth graph tracks the Spot Taker CVD over a 90-day period within the main CVD boards, measuring the net volume of market orders crossing the spread.
Thus, it reflects that aggressive buyers or aggressive sellers dominate the market.
Throughout the weeks during the price correction, the market mode was Taker Sell Dominant, with full red bars on the graph. Sellers aggressively sold in the spot market, corresponding with the gradually declining price.
But now the reversal signals indicate that the metrics have just changed to Taker Buy Dominant, with green bars returning, meaning that aggressive buyers are now outnumbering sellers in the spot arena.
This is a change that may occur quickly but is important because trend shifts often start from these micro structures, where buyers gradually enter. Then prices begin to stabilize, followed by large cash inflows.
Single-day data is insufficient. However, if the green trend continues, it will confirm that actual demand has returned and shows that the spot market absorbs supply from STHs and successfully capitulated whales.
Implications for Bitcoin's price before Christmas.
When looking at all four graphs together, it is evident that this is a late-stage correction, not a new bull market.
Short-term holders and new whales are both suffering significant losses and continue to sell immediately as the market rebounds, while the real yield of macro levels still limits overall risk appetite.
Meanwhile, some recovery processes are beginning to appear. The capitulation of new whales helps strengthen the holder composition.
Spot Taker buyers are back, which helps reduce the severity of the downside.
As Christmas 2025 approaches, Bitcoin is likely to trade in a range and is somewhat in a downtrend, moving around 90,000 USD.
Prices may still pull back in the middle or late range of 80,000 USD if real yield remains high. A clear upward shift is likely to require three signals occurring simultaneously.
First, the price must return to above the price at which short-term holders bought. Second, the two-year real yield must begin to decline, which will ease financial conditions.
Third, a Taker Buy dominant condition should occur continuously to confirm that the spot demand is truly strong.
As long as these three things do not happen simultaneously, traders must face a volatile market driven by macro data and stuck holders. For long-term investors, there may be more opportunities to plan rather than a time for aggressive betting.
