Bitcoin approaches Christmas 2025 in a fragile but interesting position. The price hovers around $93,000 after several weeks of pressure. Four key charts indicate the market is in the final stages of a correction, but a clear bullish signal trigger is not yet present.
Data highlights three major forces. Recent buyers are deep in losses, while new whales are selling off their holdings. The macroeconomy still drives the price, even as the strength of spot buying gradually returns.
Short-term Bitcoin investors are in deep pain.
The first chart tracks the realized profits and losses of short-term holders (STH). This group includes coins purchased in recent months. Their 'realized price' refers to the average acquisition cost of these coins.
At the beginning of 2025, STH holders had strong profits. Their average position was 15-20% in profit when Bitcoin rose higher. This phase encouraged profit-taking and increased selling pressure at price peaks.
The situation has now reversed. Bitcoin is trading below the realized price of STH, and this group has losses of about -10%. The histogram on the chart is red, marking one of the deepest loss phases of 2025.
This has two consequences.
In the near future, these losing holders may sell on every rise. Many want to exit at least at break-even, which limits price rallies to their purchase prices.
Deep and prolonged loss bags, however, emerge late in corrections. They signal that weak investors have already suffered significant losses.
At some point, the selling power of this group will decrease significantly.
Historically significant reversals are seen when the price rises above the realized price of STH. This movement indicates that the wave of forced selling is largely over, and new demand absorbs the supply.
Before this happens, the chart advises caution and trading at the current level.
New Bitcoin whales have just surrendered.
Another chart shows the realized profits and losses of whale groups. Flows are divided between 'new whales' and 'old whales.' New whales are significant holders who have accumulated positions recently.
Yesterday, new whales realized losses of $386 million in a single day. Their compensation on the chart features a significant negative spike. Several other large negative bars are visible at recent lows.
Old whales present a different picture. Their realized losses and profits are smaller and more balanced. They are not exiting the market at the same pace as new holders.
Such developments are typical in the final stages of a correction. New whales often buy late, sometimes using debt or strong narratives. When the price turns against them, they are the first to sell in panic.
Such a wave of selling is structurally beneficial. Coins shift from weak hands to stronger holders or smaller buyers. The selling pressure from this group decreases following such events.
In the short term, these waves of selling could still push the price lower. However, in the medium term, they improve the quality of Bitcoin holders.
The market becomes more resilient as the biggest panic sellers have exited the ranks.
Real interest rates still guide Bitcoin.
The third chart compares Bitcoin to the U.S. two-year real rates, which have been inverted. Real rates measure interest after inflation. The series moves almost exactly alongside Bitcoin during 2025.
As real interest rates fall, the reverse line rises. Bitcoin tends to rise at the same time as liquidity improves. Lower real interest rates make risky asset classes more attractive compared to safe bonds.
Since late summer, real interest rates have risen again. The reverse line fell, and Bitcoin followed suit. This shows that macro conditions still drive the main trend.
Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may not alone help the situation. What matters is how the markets expect real borrowing costs to evolve. If inflation expectations fall faster than nominal rates, real rates could even rise.
A sustainable new upward phase for Bitcoin likely requires an easier real interest rate environment. As long as no change is priced in the bond markets, BTC's price rallies will face macro-level headwinds.
Spot market taker-buyers are returning.
The fourth chart tracks the 90-day spot taker CVD at the largest exchanges. CVD measures the net volume of market orders executed over the spread.
It appears to be a matter of whether aggressive buyers or sellers dominate trading.
For weeks during the downtrend, the market has been dominated by taker sellers. Red bars filled the chart as sellers pressured sell orders in the spot markets. This was also reflected in a gradual decline in price.
Now the signal has changed. The indicator just turned into a taker-buying position, and green bars appeared on the chart. There are now more aggressive buyers than aggressive sellers in the spot exchanges.
This change is early but significant. Trend reversals often begin with such microstructure changes. First, buyers come in, then the price stabilizes, and later larger volumes follow.
One day is not enough. However, if the green situation continues, it indicates a genuine return of demand. At that point, the spot markets could absorb the supply from STH and whale sales.
What does all this mean for Bitcoin's price as Christmas approaches?
In summary, these four charts indicate the end of a correction, not the beginning of a new bull market.
Short-term holders and new whales have suffered significant losses and are still selling into strength. Real returns in the macroeconomy limit risk appetite at the index level.
At the same time, there are signs of recovery building blocks. The selling of new whales balances the holder structure.
The return of spot taker-buyers slows the pace of the decline.
As we move towards Christmas 2025, Bitcoin appears to be moving within a range under downward pressure, with the price hovering around $90,000.
Price spikes to $80,000 mid-range or higher are possible if real yields remain high. A clear upward reversal would likely require three signals at once:
First, the price must reclaim the realized price of short-term holders and stay above it. Secondly, two-year real yields should start to decline, easing financing conditions.
Thirdly, taker-buying should continue and show strong spot demand.
As long as this situation is not fulfilled, there is volatility in the trading environment dictated by macro data and stagnant holders. Long-term investors may see this more as a planning phase than the right moment to take risks.
