Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange in the United States, is preparing to launch prediction markets and tokenized stocks, while Gemini has obtained approval from regulators.
Kalshi and Crypto.com have formed an industry coalition. Changpeng Zhao is targeting 220 million users via BNB Chain. The battle among the giants for the throne of the $15 billion prediction market has officially begun.
Coinbase reveals trump card in 'Everything App' Strategy
According to reports, Coinbase will officially announce prediction markets and offer tokenized stocks during a presentation on December 17. The tokenized stocks will be launched by Coinbase itself, not through partners.
Executives from Coinbase have previously shown interest in this business but have not yet made any official announcements. However, expectations have increased as screenshots of related features have been circulating on social media X in recent weeks. A spokesperson for Coinbase declined to provide details, stating only: 'Watch the livestream on December 17 to see what new products Coinbase will launch.'
This step is part of Coinbase's ongoing 'all-in-one app' strategy. With this, the company aims to give traders access to a wide range of assets and markets and compete with rivals expanding their offerings. Robinhood earlier this year launched Kalshi’s prediction market products, and both Robinhood and Kraken offer tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs outside the U.S.
Trading in tokenized stocks is growing rapidly. According to rwa.xyz, the monthly transaction volume has risen by 32% over the past 30 days to $1.45 billion.
Industry coalition CPM launches: “A united voice is needed”
On the same day, Kalshi and Crypto.com announced the launch of the Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM), a national alliance of prediction market operators. Coinbase, Robinhood, and sports gaming platform Underdog are participating as founders.
CPM board member Matt David emphasized: “The U.S. is the largest playing field for prediction markets, and the momentum we are seeing makes having one united voice in the sector not just important, but necessary.”
The coalition will focus on strengthening a federal framework for prediction markets, establishing national integrity standards against insider trading, and opposing overly strict regulations at the state level.
Sara Slane, head of corporate development at Kalshi and board member of the coalition, stated: 'We have worked for years with the CFTC because prediction markets need strong federal safeguards that prevent insider trading, protect consumers, and keep these markets transparent and free from corruption.' According to the coalition, more companies are in talks to join.
Gemini receives CFTC approval: stocks rise by 28%
The exchange Gemini, founded by the Winklevoss brothers, has also entered the battlefield of prediction markets. Gemini Space Station Inc. received approval for a derivatives exchange from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Thanks to this approval, Gemini is allowed to offer event contract trading to existing U.S. customers via their website and mobile app. In documents for the IPO, Gemini had already mentioned prediction markets for 'economic, financial, political, and sports predictions' as an area of interest.
Gemini states it wants to explore whether its derivatives offering for U.S. customers can be expanded to include crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts. Following the news, the Gemini stock rose by as much as 28% in after-hours trading.
This approval is among the final steps of interim chair Caroline Pham, who advocates for the digital assets industry and has done much for crypto trading on CFTC-regulated platforms. Pham also announced that Tyler Winklevoss is participating in the CFTC's CEO Innovation Council, along with Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan, CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy, and Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour.
CZ enters the spotlight of prediction markets
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) is also expanding his presence in the prediction markets. On December 4, CZ shared information on X about a new prediction market starting on BNB Chain. A key feature is that users receive returns on their funds while waiting for outcomes. The platform development is supported by YZiLabs (formerly Binance Labs), which manages over $10 billion and has invested in more than 300 projects worldwide.
A day earlier, Trust Wallet, owned by CZ, launched the Predictions feature. The Web3 prediction market protocol Myriad was the first partner to join. Users can bet on politics, sports, and market trends through the app. Trust Wallet has 220 million users.
BNB Chain completed its integration with Polymarket in October. Opinion Labs, a specialist in prediction markets backed by YZiLabs, launched its mainnet. Opinion Labs secured a multi-million investment during Binance Blockchain Week. In the first quarter of 2025, a seed round of $5 million was raised, led by YZiLabs with participation from Animoca Ventures and Amber Group.
Trump Media enters the fray with Truth Predict
Trump Media & Technology Group, the social media company of former President Donald Trump, is also entering the prediction markets business. The company aims to launch 'Truth Predict' on the Truth Social network, allowing users to bet on events from political elections to changes in the inflation rate.
Truth Predict will use Crypto.com Derivatives North America to process bets, offering wagering on commodity prices and events in all major sports leagues. The first tests will start 'soon', followed by a full launch in the U.S. and later globally.
Devin Nunes, CEO of Trump Media and former Republican congressman, said: “For too long, global elites have controlled these markets. With Truth Predict, we are making information accessible and giving ordinary Americans the chance to harness the wisdom of the crowd.”
The race for the $15,000,000,000 throne
Prediction markets have grown tremendously since a federal court lifted the ban on election betting last year. The weekly trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi is now higher than the record during last year's U.S. presidential elections and has reached new records.
Investor interest is rising rapidly. Kalshi's valuation has more than doubled to over $11 billion following a recent funding round. According to reports, Polymarket aims to raise funds at a valuation of up to $15 billion.
Traditional financial exchanges, such as CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, are now also looking at how they can enter this market. The monthly transaction volume of tokenized stocks increased by 32% over the past 30 days to $1.45 billion.
However, there remains much uncertainty regarding regulations. Kalshi filed a lawsuit against the New York Gaming Commission in October. They claim that this government agency is overstepping its authority by trying to regulate sports gambling, which only falls under federal rules. In nearly twelve U.S. states, sports betting is still illegal, and the number of lawsuits regarding the legality of prediction markets is increasing.
Coinbase, Gemini, CZ’s BNB Chain, and the newly formed industry coalition — the race for the $15 billion throne has just begun.
