The growth history of Bitcoin shows remarkable patterns that analysts often use to predict future trends. Recently, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, released a new analysis based on Bitcoin’s wave model.
Experts remain optimistic for next year but express their expectations with necessary caution.
How strong is the sixth growth wave of Bitcoin?
In a recent report, Jurrien Timmer emphasized that the wave development model of Bitcoin shows that each new growth cycle expands with a smaller scale but lasts longer.
With historical data since 2010, Timmer stated that Bitcoin is now in its fifth wave. This cycle began at the lowest point of 2022 at $16,603 and could reach an expected peak of around $151,360.
“It is difficult to see in real time if we are in a new winter. However, the evolving wave structure of Bitcoin’s maturing network shows that the most recent bull market (from around $16,000 in 2022) looks quite mature,” said Jurrien Timmer.
In the short term, he remains optimistic about the Bitcoin price at the end of the year. Investor sentiment has improved due to the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.
In the long term, he hinted at a possible sixth growth wave. The model uses linear projections derived from data on the previous five waves.
According to this model, the “Descending Slope” graph of Bitcoin (in pink) indicates the following:
Wave 4: BTC rose 20 times over 153 weeks from the low to the high.
Wave 5 (ongoing): BTC could rise 9 times over 160 weeks.
Wave 6 (expected): BTC could rise about 5 times over 168 weeks.
However, the model does not determine the exact lowest point at which wave 6 will start. Timmer pointed to a possible support level around the floor of the current cycle at $80,554.
These predictions indicate a relatively positive start to 2026, as Bitcoin has not yet completed its fifth wave.
Jimmy Xue, COO and co-founder of Axis, shared a similar expectation with BeInCrypto. He believes that the effects of the Fed's rate cuts will soon be visible.
“We expect a period of stabilization and fluctuations, rather than an immediate V-shaped recovery. The market needs time to process the recent volatility. Nonetheless, the outlook for the medium term remains bullish for Q1 2026, as the rate cuts will ultimately affect global liquidity and institutional allocations will be revised in January,” Jimmy Xue told BeInCrypto.
However, some analyses point to a somewhat more pessimistic scenario. 2026 is a year of midterm elections. Historically, Bitcoin often performs weakly in such years, with declines of 60% to 75%.
These different insights point to an adventurous 2026 for investors. Institutional investors have been accumulating BTC over the past two years since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs.
