Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, is preparing to launch prediction markets and tokenized stocks, while Gemini has received regulatory approval.
Kalshi and Crypto.com have formed an industry coalition. Changpeng Zhao aims for 220 million users through BNB Chain. The battle among giants for control of the $15 billion prediction markets has officially begun.
Coinbase reveals an important card in its everything app strategy
Coinbase is reportedly set to officially announce prediction markets and tokenized stocks at a presentation on December 17. Tokenized stocks will be brought to market through its own platform, not through partners.
Coinbase leaders have previously expressed interest in these businesses, but no official announcements have yet been made. However, expectations have grown as screenshots of possible operations have circulated on social media X in recent weeks. A Coinbase representative did not comment in detail on upcoming plans but stated: "Watch the livestream on December 17 and see what new products Coinbase will launch."
This is part of Coinbase's ongoing "everything app" strategy, aimed at providing investors with a comprehensive range of assets and markets while keeping up with competitors expanding their offerings. Robinhood announced earlier this year its prediction market products with Kalshi, and both Robinhood and Kraken offer tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs outside the United States.
The trading of tokenized stocks is growing rapidly. According to Rwa.xyz, the monthly transfer volume increased by 32% in the last 30 days, amounting to $1.45 billion.
The industry alliance CPM is launching: a unified voice is needed
At the same time, Kalshi and Crypto.com announced the establishment of the Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM), which is a national coalition for prediction market operators. Coinbase, Robinhood, and sports betting platform Underdog joined as founding members.
Matt David, a board member of the CPM, emphasized: "The United States is the largest frontier for prediction markets, and the current trend makes a unified voice for the industry important and necessary."
The coalition focuses on strengthening a federal regulatory framework for prediction markets, creating national standards to prevent insider trading, and addressing excessive state regulations.
Sara Slane, Kalshi's Head of Business Development and a board member of the coalition, stated: "We have worked with the CFTC for years because prediction markets must operate under strong federal-level safeguards that prevent insider trading, protect customers, and ensure market transparency and freedom from corruption." The coalition stated that more companies are negotiating membership.
Gemini receives CFTC approval, stocks rise 28 percent
The Gemini exchange, founded by the Winklevoss twins, has also joined the prediction market competition. Gemini Space Station Inc. has received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for its derivatives exchange.
The approval allows Gemini to offer event contract trading to its existing U.S. customers through its website and mobile app. The company had listed prediction markets related to "economic, finance, political, and sports forecasts" concerning interesting products in its IPO-related announcements.
Gemini announced that it is "exploring the possibility of expanding its derivatives offerings for U.S. investors to include crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts" in the future. Following the approval announcement, Gemini's shares surged by up to 28% in after-hours trading.
The approval is one of the latest regulatory actions under Acting Chair Caroline Pham. She has positioned herself as an advocate for digital assets and has actively promoted crypto trading on CFTC-regulated platforms. Pham also announced that Tyler Winklevoss will participate in the agency's CEO Innovation Council, which also includes Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan, CME Group's Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy, and Kalshi's co-founder Tarek Mansour.
CZ rises to the forefront of prediction markets
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) is also expanding his prediction market area. On December 4, CZ announced the launch of a new prediction market on BNB Chain on X. The platform's unique feature is that users' funds earn interest during the waiting period. YZiLabs (formerly Binance Labs) supports the platform, managing over $10 billion in assets and has invested in over 300 projects globally.
The day before, CZ-owned Trust Wallet launched its Predictions feature. The Web3 prediction market protocol Myriad joined as the first partner, enabling users to bet on politics, sports, and market trends within the app. Trust Wallet has 220 million users.
BNB Chain completed integration with Polymarket in October, and with the support of prediction market operator YZiLabs, launched its mainnet. Opinion Labs received a multi-million investment at the Binance Blockchain Week event. In the first quarter of 2025, they raised a $5 million seed funding round led by YZiLabs in collaboration with Animoca Ventures and Amber Group.
Trump Media enters the competition with Truth Predict
Trump Media & Technology Group, the social media company of former President Donald Trump, is also entering the prediction markets. The company plans to launch the "Truth Predict" service on its Truth Social network, where users can bet on various events, including election events and changes in inflation levels.
Truth Predict uses Crypto.com Derivatives North America service for processing bets and offers bets on commodity prices and major sports league events. Initial testing will begin "in the near future," followed by a launch in the United States and later global expansion.
Trump Media CEO and former Republican representative Devin Nunes stated: "The world's elites have dominated these markets for too long. With the Truth Predict service, we democratize information and give ordinary Americans the ability to leverage the wisdom of the crowd."
The competition for the $15,000,000,000 throne
Prediction markets have seen significant growth since a federal court overturned the ban on election betting last year. Polymarket's and Kalshi's weekly nominal trading volume has surpassed last year's peak during the U.S. presidential election and reached new records.
Investor interest is growing rapidly. Kalshi's valuation has more than doubled since the last funding round and is now $11 billion. Polymarket is reported to be targeting a valuation of up to $15 billion in new funding.
Traditional financial exchanges, such as CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, are also exploring opportunities to enter this market. The monthly transfer volume of tokenized stocks grew by 32% in the last 30 days and reached $1.45 billion.
However, regulatory uncertainty remains a challenge. Kalshi filed a lawsuit in October against the New York Gaming Commission, alleging that the state agency is exceeding its authority by attempting to regulate sports betting, which falls exclusively under federal jurisdiction. Sports betting remains illegal in nearly ten U.S. states, and legal challenges regarding the legality of prediction markets are increasing.
Coinbase, Gemini, CZ's BNB Chain, and the recently established industry alliance – the competition for the $15 billion throne has just begun.
