Coinbase, which is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S., is preparing to launch prediction markets and tokenized stocks, while Gemini has received approval from regulators.
Kalshi and Crypto.com have started an industry organization. Changpeng Zhao aims to reach 220 million users via BNB Chain. Now the battle between the giants for the throne in the prediction market, worth 15 billion USD, has begun in earnest.
Coinbase shows its ace in the 'Everything App' strategy
Coinbase is reportedly planning to officially present prediction markets and tokenized stock services on December 17. They will launch the tokenized stocks themselves and not via partners.
Leaders at Coinbase have previously shown interest in these areas, but they have not announced anything publicly. However, expectations have increased as screenshots showing similar functionality have circulated on the social network X in recent weeks. A spokesperson for Coinbase did not want to comment on details, but only said: 'Tune in to the livestream on December 17 to see what new products Coinbase is launching.'
This is part of Coinbase's ongoing 'everything app' strategy. It aims to give traders access to many different assets and markets, while also keeping up with competitors that are broadening their offerings. Robinhood launched Kalshi prediction market products earlier this year, and both Robinhood and Kraken offer tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs outside the U.S.
Trading in tokenized stocks is increasing rapidly. According to rwa.xyz, monthly turnover increased by 32% over the past 30 days to 1.45 billion USD.
Industry Coalition CPM launches: 'A united voice is necessary'
On the same day, Kalshi and Crypto.com announced they are starting a national coalition for prediction markets, Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM). Coinbase, Robinhood, and the sports betting platform Underdog are founders.
Matt David, a board member of CPM, said: 'The U.S. is the largest market for prediction markets, and the development we are seeing now makes it necessary for a united industry.'
Organizations will work to strengthen the federal framework for prediction markets, establish national standards for integrity, and combat insider trading. They will also work to stop overregulation from the states.
Sara Slane, head of business development at Kalshi and a member of the coalition, said: 'We have worked together for several years with the CFTC because prediction markets must adhere to strong federal rules that prevent insider trading, protect consumers, and ensure that markets are open and free from corruption.' The coalition says that more companies are discussing joining.
Gemini receives approval from CFTC, stock rises 28%
The exchange Gemini, founded by the Winklevoss twins, has also entered the prediction markets. Gemini Space Station Inc. has received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a derivatives exchange.
With the approval, Gemini can offer trading in event contracts to its U.S. customers via website and app. In connection with the IPO, Gemini has shown its interest in prediction markets in 'economics, finance, politics, and sports.'
Gemini says it will 'explore developing its derivatives offering for U.S. customers with crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts.' Following the announcement, Gemini's stock rose by up to 28% in after-hours trading.
This approval is one of the latest decisions from acting Chair Caroline Pham, who has worked hard for the digital assets industry and taken several initiatives to develop crypto trading via CFTC platforms. Pham also announced that Tyler Winklevoss will participate in the agency's CEO Innovation Council, which also includes Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan, CME Group's leader Terry Duffy, and Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour.
CZ takes center stage in prediction markets
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) is also expanding his operations in prediction markets. On December 4, CZ announced on X about a new prediction market on the BNB Chain. An important feature is that users' money generates returns while they wait for the results. The platform is supported by YZiLabs (formerly Binance Labs), which manages over 10 billion USD and has invested in over 300 projects worldwide.
A day earlier, Trust Wallet, owned by CZ, launched its Predictions feature. The Web3 protocol Myriad was the first partner, allowing users to bet on politics, sports, and market trends directly in the app. Trust Wallet now has 220 million users.
In October, BNB Chain completed its integration with Polymarket, and Opinion Labs – a provider of prediction markets backed by YZiLabs – launched its network. Opinion Labs received multi-million USD investment during Binance Blockchain Week. They also raised 5 million USD in a seed round in the first quarter of 2025, led by YZiLabs and supported by Animoca Ventures and Amber Group.
Trump Media enters the fray with Truth Predict
Trump Media & Technology Group, Donald Trump's social media company, also wants to enter prediction markets. The company plans to launch 'Truth Predict' on its Truth Social network, where users can bet on everything from elections to inflation.
Truth Predict will use Crypto.com Derivatives North America to manage bets and allow users to bet on commodity prices and events across all major sports leagues. Testing will start 'soon' and thereafter the plan is to launch the service in the U.S. and later in more countries.
Devin Nunes, CEO of Trump Media and former Republican congressman, says: 'Global elites have had control over these markets for too long. With Truth Predict, we make information accessible to everyone and empower ordinary Americans to leverage the wisdom of the crowd.'
The battle for the throne at 15 billion USD
Prediction markets have grown rapidly since a federal court lifted the ban on betting on elections last year. Weekly trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi has now surpassed previous records from last year's U.S. presidential election and is reaching new highs.
Investor interest is very high. Kalshi is now valued at over 11 billion USD after its latest funding round, which is more than double its previous valuation. Polymarket is reportedly looking to raise new capital at a valuation of up to 15 billion USD.
Traditional financial exchanges like CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange are also looking for ways to enter this market. Monthly transfer volume for tokenized stocks increased by 32% over the past 30 days to 1.45 billion USD.
But there is still uncertainty regarding regulation. Kalshi filed a lawsuit in October against New York's gaming commission. The company argues that the agency is exceeding its mandate when it attempts to regulate sports betting that only the state should handle. Sports betting is still illegal in nearly a dozen U.S. states, and more lawsuits regarding the legality of prediction markets are ongoing.
Coinbase, Gemini, CZ's BNB Chain, and the new industry coalition show that the battle for the throne in this market — worth 15 billion USD — has just begun.
