Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the USA, is preparing to launch prediction markets and tokenized stocks, while Gemini has received regulatory approval.
Kalshi and Crypto.com have formed an industry coalition. Changpeng Zhao is targeting 220 million users via BNB Chain. The war between the giants for the throne in the $15 billion prediction market has officially begun.
Coinbase reveals the ace in the 'Everything App' strategy.
Coinbase is reportedly planning to officially announce prediction markets and tokenized stock services during a showcase on December 17. The tokenized stocks will be launched internally and not through partners.
Coinbase management has previously expressed interest in entering these businesses, but they have not made official announcements. Expectations have, however, increased as screenshots suggesting relevant functionality have been shared on the social network X in recent weeks. A spokesperson for Coinbase declined to comment on specific plans, stating only: 'Follow the livestream on December 17 to see what new products Coinbase launches.'
This is part of Coinbase's ongoing 'all-in-one app' strategy, designed to give traders access to a wide range of assets and markets and keep pace with competitors who are diversifying their offerings. Robinhood launched Kalshi's prediction market products earlier this year, and both Robinhood and Kraken offer tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs outside the U.S.
Trading in tokenized stocks is growing rapidly. According to rwa.xyz, monthly transfer volume has increased by 32% in the last 30 days to $1.45 billion.
Industry collaboration CPM launches: 'A unified voice is necessary'
On the same day, Kalshi and Crypto.com announced the launch of the Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM), a national alliance of operators for prediction markets. Coinbase, Robinhood, and the sports betting platform Underdog joined as founders.
Matt David, board member of CPM, emphasized: 'The U.S. is the largest market for prediction markets, and the momentum we are seeing makes a unified industry voice not just important, but necessary.'
The coalition will focus on strengthening the federal framework for prediction markets, establishing nationwide integrity standards to prevent insider trading, and opposing excessive regulation at the state level.
Sara Slane, head of business development at Kalshi and a board member of the coalition, stated: 'We spent years working with the CFTC because prediction markets must operate with strong federal safeguards that prevent insider trading, protect consumers, and ensure that these markets remain transparent and free from corruption.' The coalition states that several companies are in talks to join.
Gemini receives CFTC approval, stock rises 28%
The exchange Gemini, founded by the Winklevoss twins, has also joined the race for prediction markets. Gemini Space Station Inc. received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a derivatives exchange.
The approval allows Gemini to offer trading in event contracts to existing U.S. customers through its website and mobile app. In regulatory documents related to the IPO, Gemini included prediction markets for 'economic, financial, political, and sporting forecasts' among its interest products.
Gemini stated that they 'will consider expanding their derivatives offering for U.S. customers to include crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts.' After the news of the approval broke, Gemini's stock rose by up to 28% in after-hours trading.
The approval is among the latest moves by acting chair Caroline Pham, who has positioned herself as an advocate for the digital assets industry and has taken several initiatives to promote crypto trading on CFTC-regulated platforms. Pham also announced that Tyler Winklevoss will participate in the agency's CEO Innovation Council, which will also include Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan, CME Group chairman and CEO Terry Duffy, and Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour.
CZ takes the stage in prediction markets
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) is also expanding his territory within prediction markets. On December 4, CZ posted on X about a new prediction market launching on the BNB Chain. An important feature of the platform is that user funds generate returns while waiting for outcomes. The platform is supported by YZiLabs (formerly Binance Labs), which manages over $10 billion in assets and has invested in over 300 projects globally.
The day before, Trust Wallet, owned by CZ, launched its Predictions feature. Web3 prediction market protocol Myriad joined as the first integration partner, allowing users to bet on politics, sports, and market trends within the app. Trust Wallet now has 220 million users.
The BNB Chain completed its integration with Polymarket in October, and Opinion Labs, a prediction market provider backed by YZiLabs, launched its mainnet. Opinion Labs secured a multi-million investment during Binance Blockchain Week. The company completed a seed round of $5 million in Q1 2025, led by YZiLabs with participation from Animoca Ventures and Amber Group.
Trump Media enters the fray with Truth Predict
Trump Media & Technology Group, the social media company of former President Donald Trump, is also betting on prediction markets. The company plans to launch 'Truth Predict' on its Truth Social network, where users can bet on everything from political elections to changes in the inflation rate.
Truth Predict will use Crypto.com Derivatives North America to process the bets and will offer betting on commodity prices and events from all major sports leagues. Initial testing will start 'soon,' followed by a full U.S. launch and then global expansion.
Devin Nunes, CEO of Trump Media and former Republican congressman, stated: 'For too long, global elites have had tight control over these markets. With Truth Predict, we are democratizing information and allowing ordinary Americans to benefit from the collective wisdom of the people.'
The race for the $15 billion throne
The prediction markets have exploded after a federal court ruling lifted the ban on election betting last year. Weekly trading volume on Polymarket and Kalshi has surpassed previous highs from the last U.S. presidential election and set new records.
Investor interest is rising sharply. Kalshi's valuation has more than doubled since the last funding round and is now $11 billion. Reports also indicate that Polymarket is trying to raise capital at a valuation of up to $15 billion.
Traditional financial exchanges, including CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, are also exploring opportunities to enter this market. Monthly transfer volume for tokenized stocks has increased by 32% in the last 30 days to $1.45 billion.
Yet regulatory uncertainty remains a challenge. Kalshi filed a lawsuit in October against New York's lottery and gaming commission, claiming that the state agency is exceeding its authority by attempting to regulate sports betting operations that exclusively fall under federal jurisdiction. Sports betting is still illegal in nearly a dozen U.S. states, and lawsuits regarding the legality of prediction markets are increasing in scope.
Coinbase, Gemini, CZ's BNB Chain, and the recently formed industry coalition – the race for the throne at $15 billion has just begun.
