Is Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Dead? Maturing Network Math Signals Structural Change

As the year closes with generally strong equity market momentum and an accommodative Fed, Bitcoin (BTC) stands out as the sole major asset showing a negative performance year-to-date. This underperformance raises critical questions about the longevity of the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle.

On-chain analysis suggests the recent bull market—starting from the $16K range in 2022—is exhibiting signs of maturity. By examining Bitcoin's long-term network growth, a clear pattern emerges across its five historical advance "waves" since 2010. Successive waves show a consistent decline in magnitude (CAGR) and an increase in duration (number of weeks). The chart plotting these magnitude and duration trends clearly shows the descending slope of each wave. This evolution suggests that the network is maturing, transitioning from parabolic growth toward a more moderated, longer-duration price path, indicating a potential structural end to the highly volatile four-year cycle pattern. $BTC