【Federal Reserve script leaked?】The interest rate cut storm may arrive early! The probability in March hides a nuclear-level signal for a turnaround 💥
Last night, the CME “Federal Reserve Observation Tool” suddenly showed unusual activity, and behind the data lies a century-long bet — the market is no longer betting on “whether to cut or not,” but is frantically wagering “how much to cut and when to cut explosively”! This probability distribution chart can be regarded as the most thrilling financial spy thriller of the first quarter of 2024 📊
🔥 Current odds panorama:
▷ January next year: Interest rate cut probability 24.4% VS stubbornly holding rates 75.6%
(Note: Behind every 1% is a real position worth tens of billions of US dollars!)
▷ Key turning point — March meeting next year:
· The probability of a 25 basis point cut has soared to 40.4%
· The camp that refuses to cut rates still occupies 52%
· And the craziest “nuclear option” — a violent cut of 50 basis points, surprisingly has 7.6% of institutions betting on it!
💣 The key is this 7.6%!
This indicates that there is already significant capital preparing for “economic data explosions,” betting that the Federal Reserve will switch from “hawkish rhetoric” to “firefighter” mode in an instant. In the next three months, any CPI or employment report could instantly turn this 7.6% into 30%! Market volatility has entered a powder keg mode ⚡️
🌪 Underlying currents are surging: #加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 #巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察
· Bond market traders are frantically adjusting their positions
· Gold bulls are quietly increasing their bets
· Every time the dollar index jumps, there is a covert battle between bulls and bears
⚠️ Reminder:
Don’t just look at the surface data! Historical experience shows that when “extreme probabilities” appear, it is often a precursor to major shifts. Whether you are holding US dollars or positions, please fasten your seatbelt!
👇 Let’s discuss in the comments:
Do you think the Federal Reserve will be forced to continue its hard stance by “inflation rebound,” or will it be scared into an early pivot by “recession signals”?
