Many people were expecting the big opening of the floodgates, but instead, they heard the phrase 'long-term high interest rates.'
But don't rush to close the software —
History tells us: when everyone is focused on the same direction, opportunities often hide in the blind spots.
1. Don't be fooled by the words 'flooding the market.'
First, a splash of cold water:
The 'expansion of the balance sheet' of 40 billion being discussed in the market is essentially the RMP (Reserve Maintenance Program).
In simple terms: the Federal Reserve has found that the pool is leaking close to the warning line, so they quickly plugged a hole instead of opening a new water pipe.
This is fundamentally different from true QE (Quantitative Easing):
QE = actively injecting liquidity, flooding the gold mountain
RMP = patching up, maintaining water levels
Key conclusion: Don’t expect this 'patching action' to push the crypto market to the sky; it merely prevents the financial system from 'drowning' at the end of the year.
2. Where is the real liquidity key hidden?
If you only focus on the Federal Reserve's 'patching leaks', you may miss four more critical faucet switches:
Whether the SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio) is relaxed → determines whether banks dare to lend
The bank's own willingness to expand its balance sheet → the channel through which money flows from the banking system into the market
The Treasury's fund management → whether the treasury account is 'sucking water' or 'releasing water'
Changes in ON RRP (Overnight Reverse Repurchase) scale → how much 'leftover food' the market has
Current reality:
Banks are still 'reluctant to lend' (afraid of bad debts)
The Treasury is still 'sucking capital' (issuing bonds to replenish reserves)
The ON RRP balance has shrunk from a peak of 2.5 trillion to 400 billion → the market's 'leftover food pocket' is nearing the bottom
So the real script may be:
The Federal Reserve is currently 'repairing pipelines' to avoid 'liquidity shock' at the end of the year, but it is still far from 'actively opening the gate'.
3. Next, closely watch two 'time bombs'
① Non-farm payroll data on December 16 (November)
It’s likely to be bad—because November coincides with the late stage of the U.S. government shutdown, the job market is bound to catch a cold.
But note: poor data does not equal positive news; if the market interprets it as 'economic recession', risk assets may collectively collapse.
② CPI data on December 18 (November)
This is the main event:
If after the interest rate cut in September-October, the CPI in November does not rebound, it indicates that inflation has really been tamed → opening the window for further easing.
If CPI rebounds... Sorry, the interest rate cut expectations for 2026 may also need to be discounted.
4. My operation memo (practical version)
Short term (within 1 month):
Liquidity is marginally tightening, reducing leverage, especially avoiding high multiple contracts
Focus on sectors that can 'generate blood' themselves (such as public chains with stable staking returns and applications that generate actual revenue)
Medium term (3-6 months):
If the CPI remains mild consecutively, the interest rate cut expectations for 2026 may be repriced → start positioning in interest-sensitive assets early (such as tech tokens, DeFi blue chips)
Remember: the market always reacts to expectations 3-6 months in advance
Long-term Easter egg:
If the Federal Reserve really starts the interest rate cut cycle in 2026, starting to invest now may result in lower costs than 99% of people.
5. Finally, let’s say something heart-wrenching
Many people are still waiting for the 'Federal Reserve's massive liquidity injection' super bull market.
But the truth is: the last bull market was the result of a 'collective frenzy by global central banks + the explosion of the crypto ecosystem'. Simply betting on the liquidity cycle may lead to a void.
It’s better to change the mindset: during the 'lukewarm' liquidity phase, practice honing the internal skills to discover Alpha projects.
After all—
A bull market is a β market, with gold everywhere; a volatile market is an α market, where true abilities are revealed.
Feeling that macro is too brain-burning?
Follow me, next week I will use a chart to clarify 'the Federal Reserve's liquidity toolkit', and randomly select 3 people from the comments to give away (a manual on the relationship between interest rate cycles and the crypto market) high-definition map.
(The pinned post has a list of 'anti-rate hike combinations', which outperformed BTC by 40% over the past three years)
Adaptation instructions:
Use everyday metaphors like 'repairing pipes vs opening pipes' to deconstruct professional terminology, lowering the threshold for understanding
Strengthen personal viewpoints (such as 'don't be fooled by liquidity', 'the real script', etc.)
Increase practical dimensions (operation memo, α/β market strategy differences)
At the end, use practical materials to attract fans to stay, avoiding sensitive expressions.
Humor integrated (such as 'time bomb', 'heart-wrenching', 'lukewarm' and other colloquial expressions)
Follow me @链上标哥 , don’t get lost!
