Sigh, I guess I was right again? Long-time fans should remember that I repeatedly emphasized in the community last week: Don't let the 'interest rate cut expectations' cloud your judgment. The real turning point is not in macro slogans, but in the actual chip exchanges on the chain!
Look at the latest data and news, it is simply a perfect confirmation of my analytical framework:
Macroeconomic situation (bearish pressure): Coin Bureau's expert speaks plainly, the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates once next year? This 'warm water' won't even boil the cryptocurrency soup! The so-called 'Christmas rally' requires strong liquidity expectations. The current gradual easing only brings uncertainty to the market, not momentum. If the overall environment hasn't changed, how can there be widespread celebration?
On-chain data (a tale of two extremes): this is the key! The data from BRN makes me slap my thigh. Smart money (10-10000 BTC wallets) has quietly increased its holdings by more than 42,000 bitcoins since December 1! What does this indicate? Institutions and large holders are taking advantage of the low sentiment and the panic of retail investors to quietly accumulate and solidify their positions. They are not looking at tomorrow's rise and fall but at cycles for next year and the year after.
But why can't it rise? The problem lies on the other side; retail investors continue to reduce their holdings. They have been scared stiff by short-term fluctuations and pessimistic news, handing over bloodied chips. This has created strong short-term selling pressure, suppressing the upward momentum of prices, resulting in the current dull oscillation of 'a top above and a bottom below'.
I am not surprised at all; in fact, I feel a bit of the loneliness of 'everyone is drunk, but I am sober'. The market has always been anti-human. When most retail investors are driven by emotions, chasing highs and selling lows, the real opportunities are being nurtured against the trend.
I am calm and determined now. My analysis system tells me again: the characteristics of the bottom area are institutional accumulation and retail exit. Although the current trend is frustrating, it precisely proves that we have not yet reached the full-blown enthusiasm of the main upward wave; the real 'fireworks' will need time to settle and more certainty catalysts.
Don't stare at every minute's rise and fall and scare yourself. The pattern is opening up. The short-term oscillation is what institutions hope to see; they need cheap chips. For us traders, this is not the moment to all-in charge, but rather a golden window for phased layout and patient waiting. Maintain your position, manage your cash flow well, and don't leave your chips on the floor in the darkest moments before dawn.
Remember, a bull market is born in pessimism and grows in doubt. My analysis chain is currently flawless, and I am deeply convinced of the signals I see. Stay steady, we can win.
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