#eth Combining Ethereum's historical bear market patterns, on-chain data, macroeconomic and technical formations, a multi-dimensional model is constructed to comprehensively infer that the next bear market's lowest point is likely in the range of $1200 - $1800. The specific modeling logic is as follows:

1. Historical Decline Convergence Model: The decline in Ethereum's bear market continues to narrow as market maturity increases. In 2018, due to the early stage of the ecosystem and the bursting of the ICO bubble, the price dropped from $1373 to $82, with a decline exceeding 94%; in 2022, during the crisis triggered by the FTX collapse, it had already established risk resistance capabilities through DeFi, NFTs, etc., dropping from $1770 to $880, with a decline narrowing to 50%. Based on this convergence trend, the next bear market decline is expected to further compress to 35%-45%. If this bull market peak is referenced at the analyst's predicted $6000, the corresponding drop would suggest a low point in the range of $1500 - $1800.

2. On-chain Liquidation and Holding Cost Model: This model focuses on two core indicators: the liquidation price of whales and the average market holding cost. Data from April 2025 shows that the weighted average liquidation price of the five largest whales is $1215. If this price is breached, it will trigger the forced liquidation of 280,000 ETH, forming strong short-term support; simultaneously, Glassnode data has shown that the average market holding cost for Ethereum is $2058, and dropping below $1300 would cause over 83% of holding addresses to incur losses, easily triggering long-term holders to buy the dip. Overall, the key support range for the bear market anchored by on-chain data is $1200 - $1300.

3. Technical Wave Pattern Model: Utilizing the common ABCDE wave structure in the cryptocurrency market, analysts observe that Ethereum has been in a corrective range of a symmetrical triangle flag since its peak at $4851 in 2021. The current price is in the D wave phase, and if it encounters resistance at the upper edge of the triangle flag triggering an E wave correction, according to this pattern, a decline of over 30% will occur. If we take the common price of around $3000 in 2025 as the starting point for the correction, the calculated subsequent low would land precisely in the range of $1400 - $1800, aligning with technical support levels.

4. Macroeconomic and Ecological Value Transmission Model: Citibank incorporates Ethereum network activity, L2 value transmission rate, and ETF fund flows into the model. Its bear market scenario forecast indicates that if a macroeconomic recession leads to a significant decline in US stocks, the price of Ethereum will drop back to just $2200, supported solely by current network activity. However, this model does not fully account for the scarcity premium resulting from 28% of ETH being staked, leading to a 32% decrease in circulating supply.