#btc Combining historical cycles, on-chain indicators, and other elements to build mathematical models for analysis, industry speculation suggests that the next bear market for Bitcoin (expected to arrive in 2027) will likely see a low point in the range of $55,000 - $70,000. The following are the specific modeling and calculation logic:

1. Cycle and MVRV Ratio Model: The core of this model refers to Bitcoin's historical price cycles and MVRV ratio (the ratio of market capitalization to actual value). Historically, during bear markets, Bitcoin prices often fall to 0.75 times the actual price, and the magnitude of the retracement gradually narrows (from 88% in the early stages to 80% in 2018 and 75% in 2022). It is expected that the next retracement will be around 70%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin peaks are often 2.5 times the actual price; if it reaches a peak of $180,000 by the end of 2025, after a 70% drop in 2027, the low point will be around $55,000 - $60,000, forming a technical resonance with the previous consolidation range.

2. Mining Cost Support Model: The production cost of Bitcoin (the electricity cost to mine one coin) is a key anchor point for long-term valuation, and after each halving, the cost doubles, creating a continuously rising support line. After the halving in April 2024, the current production cost is about $70,000. Historically, when prices are close to or slightly below this cost, local bottoms often appear accompanied by rebounds, which also defines a support boundary around $70,000 for the low point.

3. On-chain Cycle Low Point Line Model: This model integrates multiple on-chain indicators to construct a price valuation range, with its 'cycle low point' line accurately marking previous macro bottoms from $160 in 2015, $3,200 in 2018, to $15,500 at the end of 2022. Currently, this indicator has risen to $43,000 and continues to move up, further confirming that the next low point will not be below this level, echoing the aforementioned range of $55,000 - $70,000.

It should be emphasized that this is merely a probabilistic range deduction based on historical data. Bitcoin's price will also be influenced by sudden regulatory policies, global liquidity changes, and other black swan events; this range should not be used as an investment basis.