Making money relies not on precise predictions but on respecting market rules and executing with discipline. Today, I will share some personal observations; this does not constitute investment advice, just casual chatting.
1. Bitcoin is the 'big boss', but don't overlook independent trends.
The rise and fall of Bitcoin indeed dominates the market, especially altcoins, which basically act according to its trends. However, strong fundamental coins like Ethereum can occasionally display independent trends. For example, during the DeFi explosion in 2024, Ethereum rose against the trend for a whole week, supported by the actual demand for ecological applications.
My view: It's not wrong to keep an eye on Bitcoin, but it's important to stay sensitive to strong projects. As the market matures, the differentiation becomes more evident.
2. The 'seesaw effect' of USDT and Bitcoin.
The appreciation of USDT often means an increase in risk aversion, which may lead to a Bitcoin correction; conversely, when Bitcoin surges, USDT often trades at a discount, making it a good time to exchange for USDT. This reflects the logic of capital flow—stablecoins act as a 'reservoir' for off-market funds.
My experience: When Bitcoin surged to $69,000 last May, I sold part of my position in batches to exchange for USDT, and later bought back when it corrected to $58,000. Patience pays off more than frequent trading.
3. Midnight 'spike' and early morning signals.
Midnight to 1 AM: Asian investors are resting, and liquidity in Europe and America is weak, making it easy to spike. I usually place low-price buy orders (like at -3%) to try for an opportunity to 'earn the price difference while sleeping'.
6-8 AM: This is a critical window for determining the day's trend. If it drops in the first half of the night and continues to fall in the morning, it’s usually a signal for bottom fishing; conversely, if it rises continuously, consider taking profits. The rules are simple, but most people fail due to emotional trading.
4. 5 PM: The 'wake-up call' for European and American players.
New York morning time (5 PM in Beijing) is a time of increased volatility. Last November on a Thursday, Ethereum rose 8% in half an hour due to institutional buying news during this period. I usually check my positions around 4:50 to avoid being caught in a passive sell-off.
5. Stay rational about 'Black Friday'.
Indeed, there have been a few significant drops on Fridays in the crypto market, but statistics show that the probabilities of rising or falling on Fridays do not show significant bias. Instead of believing in specific dates, it’s better to focus on weekly technical patterns and macro news (such as Federal Reserve meetings).
6. What to do if you're stuck? Patience is more important than skill.
I have a principle: only invest in coins with real ecological support, and never touch air projects. Once stuck, average down in batches to lower costs; breaking even is just a matter of time. For example, LRC dropped from $1.2 to $0.3 in 2023, and I averaged down every 15% drop. Four months later, it rebounded to $0.9 and I was completely free.
Key point:
No borrowing to average down;
Single project positions should not exceed 10% of total assets;
Set the stop-loss line at -20% (contracts calculated separately).
7. Long-term holding is more profitable than frequent trading.
I bought Dogecoin at $0.1 and held it for 8 years, making 20 times my investment; but more people sell after a 10% rise and cut losses after a 20% drop. True wealth in the crypto space belongs to the 'Zen players'—provided you choose coins with valuable fundamentals.
The market always has opportunities, but protecting profits is harder than making profits. I now spend only 2 hours a day watching the market, and the rest of the time studying the underlying logic of projects and industry trends. If you often feel like the market is controlling you, it might be good to stop and think.
Does your strategy rely on luck?
Is your position keeping you awake at night?
Are you blindly following big influencers?
Remember: In a bull market, you make money; in a bear market, you earn coins. Surviving through the cycle is what makes you a winner. Follow Xiang Ge to learn more first-hand information and insights about the crypto world and precise points, becoming your navigation in the crypto space. Learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $ETH
