To be honest, after eight years in the crypto space, I no longer pursue what some might call 'flawless predictions'. Surviving to this day and maintaining stable profits is not due to any secret formula, but rather three ironclad rules that are ingrained in my bones. They are my 'amulets', and I'm sharing them with you today; they are plain words, but each word is earned through blood and tears.
1. Resist the instinct to confront and learn 'reverse operation'
The market is often most dangerous when it is the most lively; when the market is quiet and no one is discussing, opportunities may arise. For example, on the night of the LUNA crash in 2022, there was panic across the network, and many people cut their losses and left. I, however, tentatively bought in with a small position (strictly controlling it within 5% of my total funds). It wasn't because I was certain it would rebound, but because the market sentiment had become extremely fearful, which warranted a cautiously optimistic approach.
My principle is:
Others are greedy while I am fearful: When the community and media are in a frenzy, often shouting 'ten times' or 'hundred times', I force myself to reduce my position or pause operations. Greed is a meat grinder, specifically killing impulsive people.
Others fear when I pay attention: When the market crashes, I don't rush to buy the dip, but I start screening for quality assets that have been wrongfully killed. For example, after a sharp drop in Bitcoin, if on-chain data shows that large holders are still accumulating (checked using tools like Glassnode), I will build my position in batches.
This tactic is not about stubbornly resisting the trend but learning to use market emotions as contrarian indicators. Just like fishing, reel in when the waves are too high, and drop the line when the water is calm.
Two, refuse the 'gambler's mentality'; batch positioning is a lifeline.
I have seen too many people go all in, only to face a black swan event and go to zero. The crypto world has no 'certainty', only probabilities. Therefore, my second iron rule is: never let a single trade determine your life or death.
Specific practices:
Start with a test position: for any asset, start with a light position (for example, 3% to 5% of total capital) to probe. If the direction is wrong, the stop-loss won't hurt too much; if the direction is right, then add positions in batches.
Adding to positions should be like a 'pyramid': start with a light position, and gradually increase weight after confirming the trend (for example, in a ratio of 1:2:3). But the total position should not exceed 60% to prevent a single pullback from wiping out all profits.
Stop-loss is the 'seatbelt': limit a single loss to within 2% of total capital. For example, with a 10,000 U account, a single trade can lose a maximum of 200 U. If it loses, cut it immediately; never average down.
The core of this logic is: use position management to dilute risk, rather than relying on luck to strike it rich. Just like playing cards, if the hand is bad, bet less; if the hand is good, increase the bet.
Three, always keep enough cash; opportunities are for those with bullets.
Being fully invested is like tying yourself to a ship; when the waves come, you don't even have a lifebuoy. I always keep 30% to 40% of stablecoins (like USDT) in my account, even in a bull market.
Why?
Prepare for the unexpected: there are too many black swans in the crypto world, policy changes, exchange collapses; keeping cash will help you survive crises.
Seize opportunities: When the market crashes, while others are trapped and staring blankly, you still have bullets to buy the dip. During the big drop on '312' in 2020, I used the cash I reserved to buy at the bottom, and later made back half a year's profits during a rebound.
Maintain your mindset: when you have food in hand, you won't panic. Those who can make calm decisions have already beaten 80% of the players.
I also force myself to take profits every month: 30% of the money I earn is converted into stablecoins and locked, and only the remaining amount continues to snowball. The money in hand is your money; otherwise, it's just a number on the balance sheet.
In terms of operation, I insist on the word 'simple'.
Stay still during sideways movement; never enter the market.
During market fluctuations, frequent trading can easily backfire. I would rather miss out than make a mistake. I will only act when the direction is clearly breaking through (for example, stabilizing above key resistance levels with volume).
Follow only when the trend breaks.
Don't guess tops and bottoms; just capture the body of the fish. In an uptrend, only go long when prices pull back to support; in a downtrend, only short when prices bounce to resistance. A golden cross of moving averages (like the 50-day crossing above the 200-day) is my trend confirmation signal.
Tools are assistants, not a holy grail.
I mainly use TradingView to draw lines and set alerts, occasionally checking the fear and greed index to avoid emotional decisions. But I absolutely do not rely on any 'universal indicators'—tools are crutches; you still have to rely on your own judgment.
Lastly, let me say something true.
There is nothing mysterious about making money in the crypto world; the difficulty lies in execution. How many people fall to weaknesses like 'can't help it', 'just wait a bit longer', and 'what if'? My three iron rules essentially tie down impulsive behavior with rules.
After eight years, my biggest insight is: slow is fast, and less is more. Don't envy those stories of overnight wealth; they might go to zero the next night. Survive and earn steadily, and you will be the one who laughs last.
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