Mars Finance reported that Matrixport stated in the latest issue (Matrix on Target Weekly Report) that the results of the latest FOMC meeting were largely in line with market expectations, but the dot plot did not provide clear guidance on the subsequent policy path, instead increasing market uncertainty about future pacing. However, from the performance of interest rates and asset prices, these uncertainties are still relatively limited in their reflection in the current prices. Powell expressed a cautious stance, and early signs of weakening in the labor market indicate that the current macro environment has changed from the beginning of the year. The report pointed out that under this background, Bitcoin has broken below a key long-term trend for the first time in this bull market, and its trend pattern shows similarities to the market rhythm before and after previous mid-term elections. Although recent discussions about the 'Fed's resumption of balance sheet expansion' have heated up, overall liquidity in the crypto market remains tight, retail trading activity has not yet noticeably rebounded, and the impact of political factors on market sentiment and trading behavior may not have been fully priced in. Matrixport believes that with multiple factors intertwined, the market is transitioning from a single trend to a more complex structure. During this phase, the importance of position management and risk control has significantly increased. The report maintains its previous judgment that even if the current situation is not defined as a bear market, there is still a high probability that this consolidation phase will continue.

#BTC