A terrifying saying has recently circulated in the cryptocurrency world: "The four-year cycle of Bitcoin has failed, and a bear market lasting three years is coming." Many influencers have even forwarded Tom Lee's speech, claiming he predicts a new high in January next year, urging retail investors to buy the dip quickly. As an analyst who has witnessed three rounds of bull and bear markets, I must pour cold water on this: blindly believing in any "master's predictions" is the beginning of losses. Today I will break it down from the underlying logic and tell you whether the cycle has really failed.
First, let's review the so-called "four-year cycle": In the past three instances, Bitcoin has precisely followed the rhythm of "halving - rising - correction," with the core driving factors being reduced supply and market sentiment. However, the market in 2025 is no longer the "small pond" of previous years. Tom Lee mentioned in his speech that the copper-to-gold ratio and the ISM manufacturing index, two traditional economic indicators, have an even stronger correlation with the Bitcoin cycle than the halving. This year, neither of these indicators has followed the four-year cycle, which is also the core reason he believes the cycle has failed.
But my view is more radical: it’s not that the cycle has failed, but the cycle has been 'institutionalized' and rewritten. The past cycle was a 'sentiment cycle' dominated by retail investors, while now it is a 'capital cycle' dominated by institutions. The capital volume of institutions is enormous, and their accumulation and distribution cycles far exceed those of retail investors, which slows down market volatility and makes pullbacks gentler. For example, after the clearing event on October 10, 2025, the market did not plummet like in 2022 but entered a prolonged consolidation, which is the effect of institutional capital support.
How should retail investors respond to this 'new cycle'? First, give up the illusion of 'catching the bottom and escaping the top.' Institutions are making long-term arrangements, while retail investors are thinking about precise timing, which is akin to seeking skin from a tiger. My approach is to adopt a strategy that combines 'regular investment + swing trading,' investing monthly in core assets during market consolidation periods, appropriately increasing positions when a clear breakout occurs, and reducing positions during pullbacks. Secondly, focus on 'real demand' rather than 'market sentiment.' Many asset increases are driven by capital and lack real application demand, making such assets unsupported during pullbacks. In contrast, sectors like stablecoins and RWA that have real-world scenarios are the core opportunities of the new cycle. Finally, learn to observe 'institutional fund flow.' Using blockchain explorers to check ETF holding changes and the transfer records of institutional wallets, this data is more reliable than any master prediction.
Many people ask me, 'Will the market rise next year?' My answer is: yes, but it won't be a broad rise. Assets that lack institutional arrangements and real demand may continue to hover or even decline; meanwhile, core assets and quality sectors will slowly rise under the push of institutional capital. I will continue to track institutional fund flows, share specific layout strategies, and keep an eye on me@链上标哥 , so you won't get lost! I will help you make steady profits in the new cycle.
