Shorting High Valuation New Projects Reference ZBT
Shorting Core Logic
1. Upcoming Unlock Bomb
In 5 days (2025-12-17), node staking will unlock 7.17M ZBT, accounting for 0.72% of total supply, which represents a 3.1% increase in the current circulation of 230 million. 43.75% of node staking will be released linearly over the next 60 months, averaging about 0.73% per month, creating continuous selling pressure. Investors and the team will have 11.25% and 20% respectively starting from 2026-10-17 with a cliff + linear unlock.
2. The Double-Edged Sword Backed by Binance Labs
While investment from YZi Labs brings traffic from the launch of Binance Alpha, it also means extremely low institutional costs (the seed round valuation is far below the current FDV). Historically, Binance Labs projects often exhibit a "pump and dump" model during the unlock period, as evidenced by ZBT's 89.73% drop from its ATH.
3. High Concentration of On-Chain Chips
The top 10 holders control 78% of circulation supply, with Uniswap PoolManager accounting for 40.8% (suspected market maker or project party liquidity), while retail holdings are minimal. The average daily active addresses on-chain are only 500, with monthly active addresses between 22,000-27,000, indicating low community participation.
4. Intense Competition in the ZK Track
The ZK Prover network faces mature competitors like Polygon zkEVM, zkSync, and StarkNet. ZBT, focusing on zkLogin and zkDarkPool, has yet to establish a moat in the privacy track. There is no TVL data (non-DeFi protocol), making it difficult to quantify actual adoption.
5. Mixed but Bearish Technicals
Mid-term Oversold: the 1d RSI at 28.6 is in the oversold zone, indicating a risk of technical rebound with short-term rebound signs: the 1h RSI at 55.7 is neutral, and the MACD histogram has turned positive. OI has risen against the trend by 5.8%: new leveraged long positions have entered the market, providing a counterparty for shorting with positive funding rates: Binance +0.005%, Bybit +0.00125%, with long positions dominating liquidation: 65% of $20,274 liquidations in 24 hours were long positions.
Warning: the ZBT technicals show a 1d RSI that has been oversold. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to the $0.1065-0.1093 range (4h Bollinger Bands middle line to SMA50) before entering, or observe price trends for 3 days before the unlock on 12-17.
Operational Suggestions
📍 Entry Price Levels:
Aggressive: $0.1047 (current price, suitable for small position testing)
Conservative: $0.1065-0.1093 (waiting for a rebound to the 4h middle line/SMA50)
🎯 Target Price Levels: First Level: $0.1018 (1h Bollinger Bands lower band, -2.8%)
Second Level: $0.1000 (psychological round number, -4.5%)
Third Level: $0.0850 (breakdown target, -18.8%) 🛡️ Stop Loss Price Level: $0.1142 (+9%, 1d Bollinger Bands middle line) ⚖️ Risk-Reward Ratio: 2.23 (excellent level)
💰 Suggested Position: 20-30% of capital, leverage ≤2x ⏰ Key Time Points: 48 hours around the unlock on December 17 $ZBT
