The long-term trajectory of ETH is again becoming a hot topic. The crazy forecast for Ethereum presented by Arthur Hayes concerns the institutional future of this asset, its price potential, and competitive space.
His comments came as Ethereum is trading around 3200 USD, fluctuating last week between 3060 USD and 3440 USD. Key players like BitMine's Tom Lee are also increasing their Ethereum holdings at an unprecedented rate.
Crazy Ethereum forecast: Institutional standard
Hayes believes that the market still does not understand how deeply traditional institutions plan to integrate Ethereum. He claims that after years of failed experiments with private blockchains, banks have realized they need a public settlement layer.
“These organizations have finally understood that you cannot have a private blockchain. You must use a public blockchain for security and real application.”
He connects this change with the boom in stablecoins, which forced banks to recognize the value of on-chain settlements.
According to Hayes, Ethereum is positioned as the only platform with the appropriate level of security, liquidity, and developer backing for institutions.
He expects this change to drive a significant price rebound for Ethereum in the upcoming cycle, with aggressive accumulations led by entities like BitMine.
BitMine purchased 33,504 ETH (112 million USD) this week and 138,452 ETH (~435 million USD) earlier in December, increasing its holdings to about 3.86 million ETH. Such an accumulation rate reinforces the narrative that institutions are gearing up for another major Ethereum cycle.
Hayes acknowledges that Ethereum still lacks the privacy guarantees required by large institutions. He notes that this is “the biggest thing that Ethereum does not yet possess.” However, he believes that Vitalik Buterin's roadmap actively addresses this issue.
Despite this gap, he believes that institutional adoption will not be delayed. Enterprises will implement layer two networks with privacy features while using Ethereum for settlements.
He believes that Ethereum's first layer continues to serve as the “security substrate,” regardless of whether activity occurs on L2, like Arbitrum or Optimism:
“There may need to be a debate about how fees are shared between L2 and Ethereum's first layer.”
He then emphasized that this does not change the fundamental reality: institutions will still secure operations through Ethereum.
This aligns with current trends in the ecosystem. Exchange balances are at their lowest levels in years, and according to data from Santiment, whales have accumulated over 900,000 ETH in recent weeks.
Institutional infrastructure continues to build on the underlying layer of Ethereum, even as fees drop due to migration to L2.
A narrow group of winners: Ethereum first, Solana second
Hayes sees the future of public blockchains centered around a very small group. He positions Ethereum as a clear, long-term winner, while he sees Solana far behind but still strong in second place.
He attributes Solana's rise from 7 to 300 USD to intense activity around memecoins in 2023-2024. However, he notes that Solana “needs a new trick” to surpass Ethereum again.
While he expects Solana to remain significant, he does not believe it will match Ethereum's institutional role or price strength in the long term.
Hayes considers almost all other L1s to be structurally weak. He dismissed high FDV chains like Monad as overvalued projects that are likely to fail after an initial surge.
50 ETH to become a millionaire by the next elections
Hayes presented the most concrete numerical forecast when asked how much ETH is needed to become a millionaire in the next cycle.
He stated that the price of Ethereum could reach 20,000 USD, meaning 50 ETH would be enough to have a seven-figure portfolio.
The founder of BitMex predicts that we will see such a price by the next U.S. presidential elections. His scenario aligns with the current supply situation: reserves on exchanges are dwindling, institutions are accumulating, and treasury buyers like BitMine continue to invest hundreds of millions in ETH.
If Ethereum does not meet these expectations, Hayes claims that the loss of narrative will be to blame.
If the use of stablecoins also slows down or institutions withdraw from on-chain trading, Bitcoin may still outshine Ethereum.
However, he believes that the current market structure favors the long-term dominance of Ethereum – especially as banks prepare to implement Web3 strategies based on public infrastructure.
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