Brothers,
Today's most terrifying thing is not the whales increasing their positions, not the ETF inflows and outflows, not the changes in interest rate expectations.
Rather:
**Polymarket's weekly trading volume has reached——
🔥 $1.3 billion (historical high), even surpassing during the US elections.**
This means that a massive shift in era is happening:
Humans are replacing 'news' with 'quotes'.
Previously, the media told you what would happen,
Now it is 'market prices' that tell you what will happen.
Prediction markets are swallowing the news industry, polling industry, and hedge fund industry.
Today I thoroughly explained this trend so that you can see the future that others cannot.
One, 1.3 billion dollars is not interest; it is 'trust transfer.'
Brother, look at several surging data points:
Political prediction: +139%
Sports prediction: +320%
Crypto prediction: +195%
Cultural prediction: +670%
Financial prediction: +200%
Tech prediction: +90%
Here comes the question:
Why do all categories surge at the same time?
There is only one explanation:
Users no longer believe in media, KOLs, experts, or government releases; they believe that 'prices speak the truth.'
This is called:
Monetization of information systems.
**Two, why are prediction markets becoming more accurate?**
Because money doesn't lie.**
The media will lie.
Experts will take sides.
Polls will be wrong.
The comments section will set the tone.
But the price will not.
Because:
Bets must be in real money
Losing money hurts
Winners will bet more aggressively
Losers will be liquidated by the market
Information will continuously flow into the hands of the wealthy
Incorrect predictions have no rewards
This makes prediction markets inherently suitable for expressing 'real expectations.'
In one sentence:
Prediction markets = a decentralized version of a 'truth search engine.'
Three, why is there an outbreak now? Because U.S. regulation is 'relaxing'
Brother, pay attention to the timeline:
CFTC issued a no-action letter to Polymarket this week
→ Not pursuing accountability under specific conditions
→ This is a signal of regulatory relaxation
Gemini is approved to offer event contracts
→ Mainstream exchanges are allowed to enter the market
Coinbase will launch prediction markets on the 17th
→ The largest compliant exchange joins directly
These three things are connected; do you know what they mean?
Prediction markets are officially entering the legalization preparatory stage in the U.S. from the gray area.
Now is the 'trial operation phase.'
Three months later is the 'policy confirmation phase.'
Two years later is the 'institutional entry phase.'
This is the reason why funds surged ahead today.
Four, prediction markets are not gambling; they are a 'global intelligence system'
Brother, you must understand:
Prediction markets are not a gambling industry but an information industry.
In the next five years, it will engulf six sectors:
① The polling industry (has been marginalized)
Polls are becoming increasingly inaccurate,
Prediction markets are becoming more accurate.
② The news industry (is being disrupted)
The information released by the media = delayed
The price of prediction markets = real-time
Future headlines in news reports will become:
'The odds of a certain event surged from 40% to 70%'
And not: 'what someone said.'
③ Hedge funds' event-driven strategies
Event-driven strategies are most reliant on information,
Prediction markets reflect information first.
In the future, foundations will directly reference prediction markets for portfolio adjustments.
④ The entertainment industry (very deep waters)
Sports odds, match result predictions, award ceremonies, influencer trends
All prices are quantified.
⑤ Political judgment (most sensitive)
Political predictions are becoming more heated,
Capital will treat this data as 'leading indicators of public opinion.'
⑥ Social sentiment (new variable)
Do you know what the strongest data in prediction markets is?
Not the result,
It is 'how much people are willing to pay for their beliefs.'
This is called sentiment pricing.
Five, what will the outbreak of prediction markets bring to crypto? Five major outcomes
① USDC / PYUSD will become the 'unified currency of prediction markets'
The reason is simple:
Cross-chain fast
Low transaction fees
Fiat currency is not free enough
Crypto is most suitable for micropayments
Stablecoin trading volume will increase to another level.
② Layer 2 will become the biggest winner in the prediction track
Because prediction markets:
Small transactions are numerous
High-frequency operations
Requires extremely low Gas
Requires high-frequency oracle updates
This is the main battlefield of L2, especially:
👉 Arbitrum
👉 Optimism
👉 Base (Coinbase brings its own traffic)
👉 Blast (suitable for high-frequency operations)
Prediction markets will become the killer app of L2.
③ Capital will treat 'prediction markets' as the next-generation Web3 social entry
Because prediction markets reflect:
Interest
Sentiment
Attention
Trends
Will
This is more real than 'posting, liking, and commenting.'
This is a new social model that surpasses Facebook and X.
④ The government can no longer control market sentiment through 'information manipulation'
Price is public opinion.
And the price is decentralized.
You cannot stop humans from betting,
You cannot stop humans from expressing expectations.
⑤ Prediction markets may become the 'fourth pillar' of the crypto industry
The three major pillars are:
Trading (DEX / CEX)
Lending (Aave / Maker)
Derivatives (GMX / Aevo)
Now add a fourth:
Prediction markets (Polymarket / Coinbase PM / CFTC compliant PM)
These four together → are the complete on-chain financial system.
Six, my conclusion in one sentence:
Brother, listen carefully—
**Prediction markets are not a new trend,
It is the beginning of humans monetizing 'cognition.'**
In the past, we expressed opinions with our mouths,
In the future, we will express opinions with prices.
In the past, we argued in the comments section,
In the future, we will put money into prediction markets.
In the past, the truth was decided by the media,
In the future, the truth will be decided by the market.
What you see today is a trading volume of 1.3 billion dollars,
You will see this three years later:
→ The government uses prediction markets to gauge policy success rates
→ Funds use prediction markets to determine departmental budgets
→ Central banks use prediction markets to gauge inflation expectations
→ Companies use prediction markets to judge new product launches
→ Society uses prediction markets to judge the direction of events
And all of this is built on one fact:
Prices are more honest than people.
💬
Brothers:
Do you think prediction markets will eventually become the biggest application in the crypto world?
Is it even bigger than DEX, DeFi, and stablecoins?
