Brothers, yesterday Bai Ge said to go long on 89000 and 3100, how many people profited?
Today is December 12, Double 12, is this year's Christmas market really coming?
Looking at history, the big pie really loves to make waves around Christmas, especially in the year after the 'halving':
December 2017: increased by 86% (at that time there were no institutions, just retail investors going wild).
December 2020: increased by 48% (the first year after the halving, institutions like Grayscale started buying).
December 2024: increased by 31% (the first year after the halving, ETF approved, state governments started buying).
And this year 2025 is the first year after the halving, historically, as long as the exchange balance is below 3 million coins,
Bitcoin's rise in December has not been less than 30%. What is the current exchange balance?
On-chain data has revealed big news: in major exchanges worldwide,
There are only 2.76 million Bitcoins left that can be bought and sold at any time. What does this number mean?
Net decrease of 440,000 compared to the end of last year, equivalent to 4,000 Bitcoins being 'taken away and disappearing' from the market every day.
This is not a trivial matter; let's break it down and examine it closely.
First of all, who has been 'locking' the coins?
To put it bluntly, it is mainly hoarded by two groups of people:
One wave is the 'diamond hands' big holders; these people have held Bitcoin for over 155 days, unshaken.
They currently hold 13,750,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 70.4% of the total circulation.
Their coins are stored in cold wallets, not sold on exchanges at all.
It equates to creating a 'downward protection cushion' for the market.
The second wave is the 'national team' institutions: they are definitely the fiercest buyers now, the trend has changed.
The Trump family is playing big, having bought over 150,000 through their foundation.
Also controlling 23% of Bitcoin's computing power in the US.
Even thinking about policies to let the country hold 10% of the world's circulating Bitcoin.
The beautiful state government: really used fiscal funds to buy in!
For example, Texas has allocated $100 million to buy Bitcoin.
They have now hoarded 32,000 as 'emergency reserves'.
Florida is even bolder, allocating 5% of teachers' pensions.
About $8.7 billion was thrown into Bitcoin ETF.
Then the former 'big short' collectively rebelled.
The funniest thing is that the people who used to criticize Bitcoin the most have now turned their guns around.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon: said in 2018 that Bitcoin is a 'fraud', employees who dare to trade cryptocurrencies will be fired.
By 2025, their own bank will not only issue coins (JPM Coin),
They also require employees to learn about Bitcoin knowledge, fearing being left behind by the times.
Gold loyalist Peter Schiff: used to criticize Bitcoin for having no value.
As a result, they turned around to engage in 'gold tokenization'.
Mocked by netizens as marrying the 'daughter' of blockchain but not recognizing Bitcoin as the 'father'.
So, brothers, the amount of Bitcoin that can be sold in the market is getting less and less.
And the number of big buyers wanting to buy is increasing. This extreme supply and demand situation,
Will the Christmas market surge or plummet? Leave your opinion in the comments.
After talking about the Christmas market, let's talk about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.
Just as White Song predicted a few days ago, Old Powell is giving a candy while whipping with a whip.
This is not him being confused, but intentionally muddling the waters. Why?
In short, it's about driving funds out of traditional markets, like herding sheep.
Some may ask: why rush?
Because the US stock market now looks like a bucket with a hole.
If you pour more water (print money) into it, it can't hold, it just leaks out.
In addition to the beautiful government occasionally 'closing the door' and slacking off, the credibility of the US dollar is a bit shaky.
As everyone reflects, this 'traditional safe haven' seems to also be leaking wind?
This money flows out of the broken bucket, needing to find a new pit. At this time, everyone looks,
Bitcoin is good because it doesn't rely on government endorsement, but on code rules, making it seem particularly straightforward and reliable.
Therefore, a large amount of capital is starting to regard the cryptocurrency world, especially Bitcoin, as a new 'water reservoir' and safe haven.
This is not just the self-indulgence of cryptocurrency groups, but the result of the market's real money voting with their feet.
As for why the market hasn't taken off yet?
Big brother, assets like Bitcoin need funds to push them.
If you want to wait for the next wave of market to take off, you have to wait for the Federal Reserve to not just talk about interest rate cuts.
You really need to release real money to make it happen, so be patient and wait for opportunities.
After saying so much, there will still be people who don't know what to do next.
Remember, whether you're an old player or a newcomer, pay attention to what follows.
You will take ten times fewer detours than others.
If your capital size is relatively large, then you should hoard spot to earn from long cycles.
Mainstream coins have not had a yield lower than 30% in a year and a half.
If you only have small funds, then you should do contracts to earn from short-term market fluctuations.
Long cycles are like farmers planting fields, requiring spring plowing, summer planting, autumn harvest, and winter storage, enduring loneliness.
Short cycles are like dancing on the tip of a knife, requiring caution, patience, and flexibility.
Some people in the market tell you to trade spot and not touch contracts, while others tell you to trade contracts and not play spot.
Both right and wrong, everyone's actual situation is different and strategies will vary.
As for how mainstream should hoard, and how to play contracts? Find me on the homepage to chat.
