Now many people are anxious: is this the starting point of a bull market, or another trap to lure shorts? Clearly, interest rates have been cut, why is $BTC not rising but falling?
To be honest, we are likely stuck in a large-scale fluctuation after a sharp decline in the bear market.
The worst wave of decline should have passed, but restoring confidence is not something that happens overnight.
In the short term, it’s a matter of bouncing up and down; essentially, it’s about trading time for space to solidify the bottom.
So why can’t this "good news" of interest rate cuts + balance sheet expansion drive the market up? The reason is simple:
1. Expectations have already been fully priced in. This drama of "buying the expectation, selling the fact" has played out countless times in the market. When the news lands, it’s time for profit-taking.
2. The Federal Reserve is also conflicted. The dot plot for interest rate cuts in 2026 is very conservative, directly pouring cold water on the fantasy of “long-term monetary easing.”
The expansion of the balance sheet is mainly to maintain liquidity in the banking system, not the kind of massive flooding you might imagine. Expecting it to spark a rally in the short term? It's unlikely.
3. The signals are confusing. This meeting even feels a bit "self-contradictory."
More crucially, the Federal Reserve's management may change next year; who will dictate the policies for 2026? The variables are still significant.
For us retail investors, don't fantasize about accurately interpreting every macro event.
There is always a time lag and an expectation gap between policy signals and market reactions.
Instead of getting entangled in the intentions behind the news, it’s better to spend more time understanding the true trends of the market.
Trends will reveal themselves. Once they become clear, taking action in line with them is much more reliable than guessing "what the Federal Reserve is really thinking."
At this stage, be more patient and less fanciful. The market won’t surge straight up, nor will it remain flat indefinitely. Staying clear-headed in a fluctuating market is more important than gambling wildly in a volatile market.
Remember: a bull market doesn’t emerge from a single piece of news, but is built up gradually with capital and confidence. Give the market some time, and also give yourself some time.
Continue to follow: $WET $FHE
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