Watch the fluctuations with a cold eye, and calmly judge the trends.
Eight years ago, I stepped into the cryptocurrency world with fifty thousand yuan. At that time, I never imagined that this initial small amount, which I only intended to 'test the waters' with, would roll into tens of millions today. After all, in this industry, there are plenty of stories: some people double their assets during a bull market only to lose everything overnight due to greed, while many others lose their way amidst the ups and downs.
To survive and thrive is not based on luck, but on a set of rules earned through blood. Today, I want to share these five core principles that helped me navigate three cycles of bull and bear markets, maintaining a win rate of over 90%.
1. Position management: The art of survival
"I previously bet on contracts and blew up 50 million in three days." A saying from an old player in the crypto circle that I have remembered for a lifetime. The market is never short of stars, but lacks those who understand longevity. The first lesson for those who understand longevity is to grasp position management.
Never bet all your chips at once: I divide my funds into 'core positions', 'swing positions', and 'cash reserves'. Core positions are only invested in projects that I truly understand and have solid fundamentals, swing positions are used to capture market hotspots, and cash reserves are used to cope with extreme market conditions. This allows me to still have ammunition in a market crash rather than being passively trapped.
Small funds rely on high risk-reward ratios for turnaround: For players with initially small amounts of capital, pursuing a high risk-reward ratio is the only way out. This means you might only be right three or four times out of ten, but the profit from the right one can cover all losses and bring substantial returns. My win rate typically ranges between 30%-50%, but the risk-reward ratio remains above 1:3, with key trends even reaching 1:10.
2. Asset Selection: Only touch 'strong' assets
Projects in the crypto world are diverse, with narratives that are dazzling. But I only adhere to one principle: does this project solve real problems, and are there people actually using it?
I prefer tokens that have practical scenarios in foundational fields like payment and storage. If a project can't find any purpose beyond market cap management, it is ultimately a house of cards. In a bull market, such assets may soar with the wind, but once the tide goes out, the naked swimmers will have nowhere to hide.
Real wealth accumulation comes from bear markets, while realization happens in bull markets. When market sentiment is at its lowest, the projects that continue to build and have active communities are the ones you should focus on.
3. Timing positioning: Sowing in despair
The best time to buy is when the market is indifferent. Just like in the 2022 bear market, when the candlestick chart was range-bound at a low level for two months, and market sentiment dropped to freezing point, I invested 30% of my position in Bitcoin in three phases. Even if I was temporarily down 10%, I remained steadfast because I knew that buying within the value range only requires patience.
Don't try to time the bottom precisely; instead, adopt a strategy of gradual positioning. No one can buy at the lowest point, but by buying in batches, you can effectively average down your cost and shift your mindset from 'guessing the bottom' to 'accumulating'.
4. Top-escaping signals: Beware of the party frenzy
Those who can buy are students, those who can sell are masters. I have summarized two key signals for escaping the top that have helped me lock in profits and avoid corrections multiple times:
Bitcoin's market cap percentage falls below 40%: This usually means that funds are flooding into altcoins, and market speculation reaches its peak, dramatically increasing risk.
ETH/BTC exchange rate breaks 0.1: This signal indicates that market risk appetite is extremely aggressive. Historical experience shows that this is often followed by a significant correction. I once overlooked this signal and ended up with a 25% asset correction within a week. After that, whenever this signal appears, I decisively reduce my position by at least 50%.
Sell when prices rise to lock in profits. If profits in a bull market are just on paper, they can evaporate in an instant. My framework is: Take profits in batches when altcoins surge and convert part of the profits back to fiat or withdraw to a cold wallet to psychologically 'lock in' gains and avoid overtrading.
5. Bitcoin denomination: The ultimate ballast
Over 90% of people in the circle cannot outperform simple Bitcoin holding in the long run. Realizing this, I established the idea of Bitcoin denomination.
Let the winners run, cut the losers: When other cryptocurrencies rise, I will exchange them for Bitcoin to lock them up; when they fall, I will use Bitcoin to gradually bottom out. Cryptocurrency trading is about momentum, so ride the wave for as long as possible.
Hold steady on long positions, short-term grid arbitrage: My long-term core position is resolutely not to be meddled with, while short-term gains are achieved automatically through quantitative grids amidst volatility. Last year, there was a month where the profits from grid arbitrage even matched the gains of the core position. This made me deeply understand that in this market, 'stability' is often more important than 'speed'.
In conclusion: Patience is the strongest alpha.
Success in the crypto world relies 30% on technology and 70% on mentality. After laying low, the worst thing is to frequently stare at the screen and operate blindly. Real opportunities are those that are waited for, not those created by frequent trading.
This industry is not lacking in smart people, but in those with patience. Patience allows you to be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy; it allows you to accumulate in a bear market and harvest in a bull market; it helps you avoid 90% of ineffective fluctuations and catch that 10% of trends that truly determine the market.
Each transition between bull and bear markets is a baptism of cognition. I hope my experiences can help you avoid some detours and be more composed.
The market is always there; the key is, are you ready? Follow Ake to learn more firsthand information and precise points in the cryptocurrency circle, becoming your navigator in the crypto world; learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $ETH
